1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2022
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
February 25, 3:00 pm EST
Russian forces entered major Ukrainian cities—including Kyiv and Kherson—for the first time
on February 25. Russian forces’ main axes of advance focused on Kyiv (successfully isolating the city on both
banks of the Dnipro River). Russian military operations along Ukraine’s northern border have been less well-
planned, organized, and conducted than those emanating from Crimea. They have also been less successful so
far. The divergence in performance likely arises in part from differences in the composition and organization of
the Russian ground forces elements in the Western Military District and Belarus (to Ukraine’s north) and
Southern Military District and Black Sea Fleet (to its south and east), as ISW has previously observed.
The Russian military has deployed additional forces to southeastern Belarus, likely beyond those
Moscow had planned to use against Ukraine, to offset these problems and challenges. Russian forces remain
much larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional military, however. Russia will likely defeat Ukrainian
regular military forces and secure their territorial objectives at some point in the coming days or weeks if Putin
is determined to do so and willing to pay the cost in blood and treasure.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro on February 25. Russian
sabotage groups in civilian clothes are reportedly active in downtown Kyiv.
• Russian forces have so far failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts. Ukrainian forces have successfully
slowed Russian troops, which have temporarily abandoned the failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv
and are instead bypassing it.
• Elements of the Russian 76th VDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in southeastern Belarus likely
for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
• Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkhiv in the next 24 hours after failing to enter the city through
frontal assaults on February 24.
• Russian forces have achieved little success on frontal assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces
in Donbas but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.
• North of Crimea, Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol
in the east. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed
directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.
• Russian forces may be assembling in Stolin, Belarus, to open a new line of advance against Rivne in
western Ukraine.
