1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
February 28, 2022
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
February 28, 3:30pm EST
The Russian military is reorganizing its military efforts in an attempt to remedy poor
planning and execution based on erroneous assumptions about Ukrainians’ will and
ability to resist. Russian operations around Kyiv remain limited as logistics and reinforcements
arrive but will likely resume in greater strength in the next 24 hours. Ukrainian military leaders say that
they have used the pause to strengthen Kyiv’s defenses and prepare to defend their capital in depth.
The Ukrainian military likely cannot prevent Russian forces from enveloping or encircling Kyiv if the
Russians send enough combat power to do so, but likely can make Russian efforts to gain control of the
city itself extremely costly and possibly unsuccessful.
The Russian military has begun using area-attack weapons in the city of Kharkiv, dramatically
increasing the damage to civilian infrastructure and the number of civilian casualties it is causing. It is
using tube- and rocket artillery against Kharkiv, and unconfirmed reports indicate that it is also using
thermobaric weapons, which can have devastating effects, especially on civilian targets. Ukrainian
resistance in and around Kharkiv remains determined, but it is unclear how long Ukrainian defenders
can hold if Russia sustains or increases attacks of this variety coupled with ground attacks supported
by arriving Russian reinforcements.
Russian advances in southern Ukraine remain slower than they had been in the initial days of the war,
possibly due to Russian efforts to concentrate sufficient combat power to conduct decisive operations
against Mariupol and, possibly, Zaporizhia.
The next major phase of Russian offensive operations will likely begin within the next 24
hours and play out over the ensuing 48-72 hours.
Ukrainian resistance remains remarkably effective and Russian operations, especially on the Kyiv axis,
have been poorly coordinated and executed, leading to significant Russian failures on that axis and at
Kharkiv. Russian forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional military,
however, and Russian advances in southern Ukraine threaten to unhinge the defense of Kyiv and
northeastern Ukraine if they continue unchecked.
Key Takeaways
• Russia deployed additional heavy forces and artillery that it has so far failed to
employ in assaults on Kyiv to the city’s western approach on February 27-28.
Russian forces will likely launch a renewed assault on western Kyiv on March 1.
