1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russia-Ukraine Warning Update:
Initial Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
February 24, 3:00 pm EST
Russian President Vladimir Putin began a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 likely
aimed at full regime change and the occupation of Ukraine. His claimed objective to “demilitarize” and
“de-nazify” Ukraine is a transparent cover for an unprovoked war of aggression to occupy a neighboring state.
Putin and Kremlin media continue to deny that the Russian invasion is a war, instead describing it as a special
military operation.
Putin’s messaging is likely aimed at a domestic Russian audience, which the Kremlin has not
fully prepared for the costs of a war against Ukraine. Russian officials and state media have been denying and
mocking Western warnings of the impending Russian invasion for months and as recently as February 23.
Russian forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional military. Russia will likely
defeat Ukrainian regular military forces and secure their territorial objectives at some point in the coming days
or weeks if Putin is determined to do so and willing to pay the cost in blood and treasure.
Key Takeaways
• Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing Russian offensives on all axes of advance other than a Russian
breakout from the Crimean Peninsula. Russian failure to ground the Ukrainian air force or cripple
Ukrainian command and control is likely enabling these initial Ukrainian successes.
• Ukrainian forces are contesting the Hostomel military airport, 20 km northwest of Kyiv, as of 9:30 pm
local time.
Russian VDV (Airborne) troops landed at Hostomel and have also failed to capture the
Boryspil airport southeast of Kyiv. Ukraine’s contestation of the airport deprives Russian forces of any
location to airlift forces onto Kyiv’s western flank overnight.
• Russian forces are rapidly advancing north from Crimea, securing Kherson city. Their deepest
penetration to date is about 60 kilometers.
• Russian forces are advancing on Kyiv from Belarus on both sides of the Dnipro River. Russian forces
secured the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (on the west bank) at 7:30 pm local time, but Ukrainian forces
have slowed Russian advances east of the Dnipro at Chernihiv.
• Russian forces likely seek to cut off Ukrainian troops on the line of contact in Donbas using an
envelopment behind the Ukrainian front lines through Luhansk Oblast. Russian frontal assaults have
taken little territory in Donetsk and Luhansk at this time.
Russian military operations began with a short and incomplete air campaign on February 24
around 4:00 am local time targeting Ukrainian air defenses, supply depots, and airfields across
unoccupied Ukraine. However, portions of the Ukrainian Air Force remain operational and
Ukrainian command and control appears intact.
• US defense officials estimate initial strikes comprised over 100 missiles including a mix of short and
medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and sea-launched missiles.
An estimated 75 Russian
bombers participated in the attack.
• Russia did not successfully ground the Ukrainian air force or cripple the Ukrainian armed forces, enabling
several Ukrainian successes on February 24. ISW incorrectly forecasted that any Russian offensive would
begin with a concentrated air and missile campaign to cripple Ukrainian command and control and
infrastructure.
