“Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats Project 2022”
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Mason Clark, and Frederick W. Kagan
September 16, 8pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The revelations of mass graves of civilians and torture chambers in newly liberated
Izyum confirm ISW’s previous assessments that the Bucha atrocities were not isolated
war crimes but rather a microcosm of Russian atrocities throughout Russian-occupied
areas. The Ukrainian General Staff published images on September 16 showing a mass burial site in
Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast and noting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the site
contained more than 400 bodies showing signs of torture and brutality.
The Ukrainian Ministry of
Reintegration reported that the number of war crimes victims in Izyum may exceed those of Bucha.
The head of Ukraine’s National Police, Ihor Klymenko, stated that Ukrainian officials have found 10
Russian torture chambers in Vovchansk, Kupyansk, Balaklia, and Izyum.
One torture chamber was
reportedly located in the Balakliya police department, where “Russians wore masks and tortured
civilians with bare electric wires,” according to Andriy Nebytov, the head of the National Police Main
Directorate in the Kyiv region.
ISW Non-Resident Fellow Nataliya Bugayova had warned in April 2022 that “Bucha is an observable
microcosm of a deliberate Russian terror campaign against Ukrainians. Similar intentional atrocities
are happening throughout Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine.”
Ukrainian officials will likely continue
to find evidence of Russian war crimes and atrocities as Ukrainian forces liberate occupied areas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to threaten increased attacks on Ukrainian
civilian infrastructure if reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian military positions in
Russian Federation territory continue. Putin said that Russia has been “rather restrained in our
response” to Ukrainian “terrorist acts [and] attempts to damage our civilian [sic] infrastructure” in a
question-and-answer session with reporters following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting
on September 16.
He continued “more recently, the Russian armed forces have dealt a couple of
sensitive blows” that are “warning shots,” and threatened that more serious attacks could follow. Putin
did not explicitly refer to the reported Ukrainian strikes on the base of the Russian 3
rd
Motorized Rifle
Division near Valuyki that occurred on September 16, nor did he make clear which Russian actions he
was referring to. But Russian forces have increased attacks on civilian infrastructure throughout
Ukraine over the past several weeks as Russian media personalities increase explicit calls for such
attacks.
Putin’s comments are likely in part a response to criticism by Russian milbloggers, who attacked the
Kremlin for failing to protect Russian territory and for failing to respond adequately. One milblogger
asked if the Kremlin still regards Belgorod Oblast as part of Russia, part of the “special military
operation” zone, or part of Ukraine.
Another blamed the reported Ukrainian attack on Valuyki on the
so-called “regrouping” of Russian forces (referring to the initial language the Russian Ministry of
Defense used to describe the rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast) and warned that another
“regrouping” could allow Ukrainian forces to attack other critical Russian areas.
Putin has increasingly
shown a determination to appease the milbloggers and the constituencies they speak to and on behalf
of, even at the expense of the uniformed Russian military and the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center warned on September 16 that Russian forces are
planning to conduct false flag attacks against civilian population in Russian-occupied
Ukraine and urged Ukrainians in occupied areas to avoid public places between
