1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
September 9
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and
Mason Clark
September 9, 11:15pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500 square kilometers in
Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of September 9.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery
Zaluzhnyi stated on September 8 that Ukrainian forces liberated over 1,000 square
kilometers between September 1-8 – a day before Ukrainian forces reached the southern
approach to Kupyansk and the Oskil River on September 9.
Ukrainian forces are likely
clearing pockets of disorganized Russian forces caught in the rapid Ukrainian advance to
Kupyansk, Izyum, and the Oskil River, given the influx of observed pictures of Russian
prisoners of war in the past 48 hours.
Ukrainian forces may collapse Russian positions around Izyum if they sever
Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) north and south of Izyum.
Ukrainian forces continued to advance on Kupyansk and towards Izyum on September 9,
and are undertaking measures to isolate the Russian Izyum grouping of forces. If Ukrainians
are successful in severing the Russian GLOCs, then they will have an opportunity to create
a cauldron around Izyum and collapse a major portion of the Russian positions in
northeastern Ukraine.
The Kremlin is rushing resources to the Kharkiv City-Izyum line in an attempt
to halt Ukrainian advances after Ukrainian forces achieved remarkable
operational surprise. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Kremlin wires
published footage of Russian military convoys reportedly en route to reinforce Kupyansk,
Izyum, and the general Kharkiv direction but did not acknowledge Ukrainian successes in
the area.
While Russian milbloggers largely welcomed the reports of reinforcements, some
criticized the Kremlin for first relocating units away from the Kharkiv City-Izyum line, only
to deploy them again to the same location.
Russian forces have been redeploying out of
southern Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce Donetsk Oblast and the Southern Axis to address the
threat of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast and to resume offensive operations
west of Donetsk City for several weeks.
The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive is
upending the Kremlin’s effort to make Izyum an economy of force area. Some milbloggers
also noted that September 10 will be a decisive day if Russians are unable to generate
reserves and capable command in time.
The Kremlin is refusing to publicly address Ukrainian successes in Kharkiv
Oblast, but the counteroffensive likely prompted Russian President Vladimir
Putin to convene a meeting with top Russian security and political officials on
September 9.
The Kremlin did not discuss the topic of the security council meeting, and
the Kremlin’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Kremlin will not comment on the
