1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Mason Clark
September 7, 9:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian forces in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely exploiting Russian force
reallocation to the Southern Axis to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective
counteroffensive northwest of Izyum. Ukrainian forces likely used tactical surprise to advance at
least 20km into Russian-held territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, recapturing
approximately 400 square kilometers of ground. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops began
deploying reinforcements to the area to defend against Ukrainian advances, and the Russian grouping
in this area was likely understrength due to previous Russian deployments to support ongoing efforts
to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and support the southern axis.
Ukraine’s ongoing
operations in Kherson Oblast have forced Russian forces to shift their focus to the south, enabling
Ukrainian forces to launch localized but highly effective counterattacks in the Izyum area.
Russian
milbloggers voiced concern that this Ukrainian counterattack seeks to cut ground lines of
communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would allow Ukrainian
troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory.
These
milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains,
and claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south may be a distraction from the ongoing
actions in Kharkiv Oblast, which they name as the main Ukrainian effort.
The level of shock and frank
discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by
Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces. While it is unlikely that the
southern counteroffensive and effort to attrit Russian forces in southern Ukraine is a feint for renewed
operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces likely took prudent advantage of a reallocation of
Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus to launch localized counteroffensives toward
critical points in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny the International Atomic Energy
Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power
Plant (ZNPP). Putin claimed that there is no Russian military equipment on the grounds of the ZNPP
other than Rosgvardia elements.
Rosgvardia elements have carried out both occupation functions and
frontline combat operations during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s admission that there are
Rosgvardia elements on the plant’s grounds further confirms that Russian forces have militarized their
presence at the ZNPP despite constant Russian denials. Putin also accused the IAEA of acting under
Western pressure to not directly blame Ukraine of shelling the plant. As ISW previously assessed, the
IAEA report was a coded yet damning condemnation of Russian activities at the ZNPP.
Key Takeaways
• Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from
the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threaten Russian GLOCs in the
area, prompting demoralized responses from Russian milbloggers.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny the International Atomic
Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Ukrainian forces continued strikes on Russian logistics nodes, manpower and
equipment concentrations, transportation networks, and command and control
points in Kherson Oblast.
