1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
September 10
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Angela Howard, and Mason Clark
September 10, 11:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and
collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled
withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around
Izyum. Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from
this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum
deploy a covering force for the retreat. Ukrainian gains are not confined to the Izyum area; Ukrainian
forces reportedly captured Velikiy Burluk on September 10, which would place Ukrainian forces within
15 kilometers of the international border.
Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a
depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers
of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces
have captured in all their operations since April.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they
have not already done so. The liberation of Izyum would be the most significant Ukrainian military
achievement since winning the Battle of Kyiv in March. It would eliminate the Russian advance in
northwest Donetsk Oblast along the E40 highway that the Russian military sought to use to outflank
Ukrainian positions along the Slovyansk – Kramatorsk line. A successful encirclement of Russian forces
fleeing Izyum would result in the destruction or capture of significant Russian forces and exacerbate
Russian manpower and morale issues. Russian war correspondents and milbloggers have also reported
facing challenges when evacuating from Izyum, indicating Ukrainian forces are at least partially closing
a cauldron in some areas.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the
Balakliya-Izyum line on September 10, falsely framing the retreat as a “regrouping” of
forces to support Russian efforts in the Donetsk Oblast direction – mirroring the
Kremlin’s false explanation for the Russian withdrawal after the Battle of Kyiv.
The
Russian MoD did not acknowledge Ukrainian successes around Kharkiv Oblast as the primary factor
for the Russian retreat, and claimed that Russian military command has been carrying out a controlled
withdrawal from the Balakliya-Izyum area for the past three days. The Russian MoD falsely claimed
that Russian forces undertook a number of demonstrative actions and used artillery and aviation to
ensure the safety of withdrawing Russian forces. These Russian statements have no relation to the
situation on the ground.
The Russian MoD’s inability to admit Russian failures in Kharkiv Oblast and effectively
set information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space. Kremlin-sponsored
TV propagandists offered a wide range of confused explanations for Ukrainian successes ranging from
justifications that Russian forces are fighting against the entire Western Bloc, to downplaying the
importance of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in Kupyansk.
