1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros,
and Mason Clark
September 2, 9:00 pm ET
Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1
indicating that while the majority of Russians still support military operations in
Ukraine, public support for the war may be gradually declining. Levada stated that the
overall support for Russian forces in Ukraine has not changed significantly over the summer, with 76%
of the survey’s respondents in favor of the action of Russian forces in Ukraine (46% strongly supporting
and 30% generally supporting).
Levada also noted that 48% of respondents believe that it is necessary
for Russian operations in Ukraine to continue.
The polls showed that 44% of respondents were in favor
of peace negotiations and that a majority of Russia’s younger segments of the population (18-39-year-
olds) favor negotiations.
In March of 2022, Levada found that 53% of respondents strongly support
Russian military actions in Ukraine but that the percentage of respondents in this category declined to
46% by August.
This is a minor deterioration and will not fundamentally impair the Kremlin’s ability
to conduct the war. However, declining support and war weariness will likely increasingly impede
Russian recruitment and force generation efforts.
Russian and proxy officials are solidifying their narratives surrounding the Ukrainian
counteroffensive to amplify false claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson
Oblast is detrimental to Ukraine’s continued existence. Russian Defense Minister Sergey
Shoigu claimed on September 2 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky planned the Ukrainian
counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast solely to create an illusion among “Western curators” that
Ukrainian forces can conduct an effective counteroffensive.
Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy
Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselyov claimed that Ukrainian forces’ engagement in the counteroffensive
was (referring to the offensive in past tense) “collective suicide” and suffered high casualties.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on September 1 that internal Ukrainian divisions
will soon force the military conflict to end.
Russian milbloggers increased their amplification of these
narratives on September 1-2 as the information space around the success and tempo of the Ukrainian
counteroffensive remained murky.
Russian sources will likely continue propagating these false
information narratives to exploit Ukrainian operational silence. As ISW has previously noted, complex
counteroffensives cannot be resolved overnight or in a matter of days, and the Russian presentation of
an immediate Ukrainian failure due to a lack of constant Ukrainian claims of territorial gains is a
deliberate obfuscation of reality.
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Key Takeaways
• Independent polling showed that a majority of Russians still support the Russian
war in Ukraine.
• Russian and proxy officials are solidifying their narratives surrounding the
Ukrainian counteroffensive to claim it will debilitate the Ukrainian military.
• Ukrainian officials reported that positional battles are underway in unspecified
areas of Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian
ground lines of communications (GLOCs), logistics nodes, and reinforcement
efforts throughout southern and central Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks south and northeast of Bakhmut and
along the western and northern outskirts of Donetsk City.
