1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 26
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, George Barros, and Mason Clark
August 26, 6:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces did not make any claimed or assessed territorial gains in Ukraine on
August 26, 2022, for the first time since August 18, 2022.
However, Russian forces still
conducted limited and unsuccessful ground attacks on the Eastern Axis on August 26.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that unspecified actors (but
almost certainly Russian forces) reconnected part of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power
Plant (ZNPP) to the Ukrainian power grid on August 26.
Ukrainian nuclear operating
enterprise Energoatom stated that unspecified actors reconnected one of the power units to the ZNPP
and are working to add capacity to the ZNPP’s operations.
Russian forces remain in full control of the
plant, though it is unclear why they would have reconnected the power unit.
Russian occupation authorities remain unlikely to successfully conduct sham referenda
to annex Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation by early September, despite
reports of advancing preparations for referenda. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Main Intelligence
Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated on August 26 that Russian authorities have completed
administrative preparations for referenda and created election headquarters, drawn up voter lists, and
created election commissions, which Skibitsky stated indicates that the preparatory process for
referenda is “almost complete.”
Russian-backed occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast
announced that they have already audited polling stations, analyzed voter lists, and selected candidates
for work in voter precincts and territorial election commissions.
However, Russian occupation authorities are unlikely to be able to carry out referenda as they intend
(with cooperation from local collaborators) by the purported September 11 deadline due to continued
frictions within occupation administrations and ongoing partisan attacks. The Ukrainian advisor to the
head of Kherson Oblast, Serhiy Khlan, stated on August 26 that the Kherson occupation administration
is struggling to find people to head administrative units in charge of referendum preparations, likely
due to a lack of willing locals and low levels of trust in Ukrainian collaborators.
Khlan notably stated
that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have ordered occupation administrators to avoid importing
Russian administrators to fill these roles in order to make the referendum process appear like a
grassroots initiative with local support.
Ukrainian sources have previously reported that Ukrainian
resistance and increasing partisan attacks are inhibiting preparations for the referendum.
While
Russian authorities could hypothetically forcibly annex Ukrainian territories on an arbitrary date, they
are unlikely to do so without holding staged referenda. All observed indicators suggest that Russian
authorities seek to create a veneer of local support and participation before conducting the referenda
to frame them as widely supported initiatives but face ongoing setbacks that will delay any annexation
effort.
Key Takeaways
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that elements of the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) reconnected to the Ukrainian power
grid on August 26.
