Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Layne Philipson, Angela Howard, Katherine Lawlor, George
Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
August 18, 7pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August
18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.
Russian and Ukrainian sources did not claim
any new territorial gains on August 18. However, Russian forces still conducted limited and
unsuccessful ground assaults across the eastern axis on August 18.
Russian sources reported explosions across Crimea—possibly caused by Russian air
defenses, Ukrainian reconnaissance, or a Ukrainian attack—the night of August 18.
Three local sources told Reuters that at least four explosions struck around Belbek Airbase in
Russian-occupied Crimea, near Sevastopol.
The Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol,
Mikhail Razvozhaev, claimed that preliminary information indicated that Russian air defenses
shot down a Ukrainian drone and caused no damage.
Video of a large explosion that circulated
on social media in the immediate aftermath of the reported explosions was from a previous
engagement on August 8 and is not from the vicinity of the airbase.
Russian sources also claimed that Russian air defenses shot down a drone near the Kerch Bridge
between Crimea and Russia on the night of August 18 as social media footage showed active air
defenses in the area.
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak had tweeted on August
17 that the Kerch bridge was illegally constructed and ”must be dismantled.”
The railway side of
the Kerch bridge is an important target for Ukraine to disrupt Russian logistics capabilities into
occupied Ukraine. Social media videos also claimed to depict active Russian air defenses at a
Russian base in Nova Kakhova in southern Kherson oblast the night of August 18, suggesting a
possibly coordinated series of Ukrainian attacks, if there were attacks, or drone overflights.
ISW cannot independently verify whether Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian UAV, or
whether any UAV was present in Kerch or Belbek. A Russian social media user posted video
claiming to be at Belbek on the evening of August 18, showing no apparent evidence of a strike
there.
Ukrainian forces will likely continue their campaign to strike Russian military targets in
Russian-occupied Crimea to degrade Russian logistics capabilities and degrade Russian
capabilities to sustain operations on the west bank of the Dnipro River, as ISW previously
assessed.
However, it is unclear at the time of publication whether the reported explosions are
due to Ukrainian attacks or reconnaissance, poor Russian handling of military equipment,
successful Russian air defenses, or nervous Russian defenders who are likely steeling themselves
for additional attacks in areas that the Russian military had believed until now to be out of the
range of Ukrainian forces.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be setting information
conditions to blame Ukrainian forces for future false flag operations at the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical, and
Biological Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, claimed in an August 18 briefing that
Ukrainian forces are preparing for a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the
provocation is meant to coincide with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ visit to Ukraine.
Kirillov accused Ukrainian forces of preparing to stage this provocation in order to blame Russia
for causing a nuclear disaster and create a 30km-wide exclusion zone around the NPP.
