1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
August 16
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, George Barros, and
Frederick W. Kagan
August 16, 9 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a
critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local reports and videos
show a series of explosions at a Russian ammunition depot and a transformer substation
in Dzhankoiskyi District and an airfield near Hvardiiske, Crimea.
These explosions both
caused significant damage to Russian resources and seriously disrupted Russian logistics.
Russian forces have used Dzhankoi as a railway hub for transporting troops and
equipment to occupied settlements in southern Zaporizhia Oblast, including Melitopol.
Russian authorities temporarily suspended passenger rail service from Russia into Crimea
following the attack.
Ukrainian forces have not officially claimed responsibility for these
explosions. The New York Times reported that an anonymous senior Ukrainian official
attributed the explosions in Dzhankoiskyi District to “an elite Ukrainian military unit
operating behind enemy lines,” but no Ukrainian official has publicly come forward to
claim responsibility.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a statement calling the
explosions “a result of sabotage.”
A Ukrainian strike on logistical targets in Crimea, which is the sovereign
territory of Ukraine, would not violate Ukrainian commitments to Western
partners regarding Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons within
Ukrainian territory or stated US policy regarding Ukraine’s right to use force
to regain control of all its territory including areas seized by Russia in 2014.
There are no indications that Ukrainian forces used US-supplied weapons in recent strikes
on Crimea, and it is unlikely that they did, since the targets are well beyond the range of
the US-provided systems.
Attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a
coherent Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain control of the west bank of
the Dnipro River. Russian supply lines from Crimea directly support Russian forces in
mainland Ukraine including those in western Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s targeting of
Russian ground lines of communication and logistic and support assets in Crimea is
consistent with the Ukrainian counteroffensive effort that has also targeted bridges over
the Dnipro River and Russian logistical support elements in occupied Kherson Oblast.
The net effects of this campaign will likely be to disrupt the ability of Russian forces to
sustain mechanized forces on the west bank of the Dnipro River and to defend them with
air and artillery assets on the east bank from Ukrainian counterattacks.
The Kremlin continues efforts to misrepresent its likely maximalist goals in
Ukraine. ISW assesses that Russian strategic objectives remain unchanged: changing the
