1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
August 15
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, Angela Howard,
George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
August 15, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia reportedly refused
to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast and complained about the grueling
pace of offensives outside of Luhansk Oblast. The emotional significance of recent
Russian targets in Donetsk Oblast resonates with audiences in the Donetsk People’s
Republic (DNR), but not with LNR audiences tired of grueling offensives beyond their
claimed borders. Several Ukrainian channels shared a video on August 15 of soldiers from
LNR Battalion 2740 refusing to fight for the DNR.
The soldiers claim that they celebrated
victory on July 3, when LNR forces reached the borders of Luhansk Oblast, and that their
work is done. At least one Russian milblogger has criticized the LNR servicemembers for
desiring Russian support for their own ”liberation” and then refusing to fight in Donetsk
Oblast.
ISW cannot independently verify the origin or authenticity of this particular
video. Its message reflects a larger trend of diminished LNR investment in and morale to
support the Russian war in Ukraine, however. This trend is particularly dangerous to
Russian forces seeking to recruit still more new soldiers from Luhansk Oblast to make up
for recent losses. Further division within Russian-led forces also threatens to further
impede the efficiency of the Russian war effort.
DNR units have previously recorded similar appeals when operating in
Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts, which may indicate that proxy
troops might not fully support the Kremlin’s expansive invasion plans. ISW
has previously reported that servicemen of the 3
rd
Infantry Battalion of the DNR’s 105th
Infantry Regiment complained when the unit was redeployed from Mariupol to Luhansk
Oblast in late May.
The 113th Regiment of the DNR also published a similar appeal from
the Kherson Oblast frontlines in early June.
Another serviceman of an unspecified DNR
battalion complained that Russian border guards held the unit at the Belgorod Oblast
border after the unit fought around Kharkiv City in mid-May to allow Russian units to
withdraw first.
DNR-based war correspondents have been boasting about the DNR
progress around Avdiivka, but such attitudes may sour again if the DNR units are
recommitted to another axis.
Russia’s annual Technical Forum and Army Games which began in Moscow
on August 13 do not represent any immediate military threat to Ukraine. The
forum and army games are not military exercises. The forum is the Kremlin’s premier
annual military-industrial complex exposition and generates reliable arms sale revenue,
which the Kremlin uses to supplement income lost due to sanctions.
The Army Games are
a complementary series of competitive military sporting events that the Kremlin uses to
demonstrate Russian weapons systems in the field and develop relationships with foreign
militaries. This year’s Army Technical Forum will be held from August 15 to August 21 and
the Army Games will run from August 13 to August 27.
