1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
August 14
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W.
Kagan
August 14, 9:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian and proxy troops in Ukraine are likely operating in roughly six
groups of forces oriented on Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast;
along the Izyum-Slovyansk line; the Siversk-Lysychansk area; Bakhmut; the
Avdiivka-Donetsk City area; and Southern Ukraine. The Kharkiv City and Siversk-
Lysychansk groups are likely built around cores drawn from the Western and Central
Military Districts respectively. The Izyum-Slovyansk axis is increasingly manned by
recently formed volunteer battalions that likely have very low combat power. Wagner
Group private military company (PMC) soldiers are in the lead around Bakhmut, while
forces drawn from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) predominate in the Avdiivka-
Donetsk City area. Troops from the Southern Military District (SMD) likely formed the
original core of forces in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts but have been reinforced with
troops of the Eastern Military District, Airborne Forces, and Rosgvardia. None of these
groupings is homogeneous—elements of various military districts, proxy forces, volunteer
units, and other formations are scattered throughout the theater.
These dispositions suggest that Moscow is prioritizing the advance around Bakhmut and,
possibly, toward Siversk with its Russian forces while seeking to draw on the enthusiasm
of DNR forces to seize ground they have failed to take since 2014 on the Avdiivka axis. The
high concentration of volunteer battalions around Izyum and Slovyansk suggests that that
area is not a focus of Russian attention and may be vulnerable to Ukrainian
counterattacks. The congeries of forces in and around Kherson Oblast may pose
significant challenges to Russian command and control, especially if Ukrainian forces
press a counteroffensive there.
Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast:
Mainly Western Military District units
Russian force composition around Kharkiv City is at least in part composed of Western
Military District (WMD) units. The Ukrainian General Staff has identified that Russian
forces concentrated WMD units around Kharkiv City and in border areas of Russia’s Kursk
and Bryansk Oblasts (northeast of the city).
Russian offensive operations on this axis have
generally been desultory and suggest a lack of focus, possibly reflected in more limited
force deployments.
Izyum-Slovyansk line:
Mainly Volunteer Battalions and some Eastern Military District units
Russian forces are likely committing volunteer units and some remaining detachments of
the Eastern Military District (EMD) to the Izyum-Slovyansk line and are likely
deprioritizing the axis in favor of defending positions in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian
