1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12
Kateryna Stepanenko, Layne Philipson, Angela Howard, Katherine Lawlor, George Barros, and Frederick W.
Kagan
August 12, 9:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside
the static maps present in this report.
The Kremlin is reportedly attempting to mobilize industry to support prolonged war efforts in Ukraine. The
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin initiated the “industrial
mobilization” of the defense enterprises in early August, banning some employees and the entire leadership at
the Russian state industrial conglomerate company Rostec from taking vacations.
The GUR added that the
Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation, chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is
preparing to change the state defense order program by early September to increase expenditures by 600-700
billion rubles (approximately $10 billion). Russian outlet Ura also reported that Russian Defense Minister Sergey
Shoigu likely visited the Uralvagonzavod factory, the largest tank manufacturer in Russia and the producer of
Russia’s T-72 main battle tanks, on August 12.
The GUR previously reported that Uralvagonzavod faced financial
issues due to Western-enforced sanctions and failure to meet state contract obligations.
If true, Shoigu’s visit
could suggest that the Kremlin is attempting to restart or expand the operation of the military-industrial
complex. ISW has previously reported that the Kremlin has been conducting a crypto-mobilization of the Russian
economy by proposing an amendment to the federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the
Russian State Duma on June 30.
The amendment obliges Russian businesses, regardless of ownership, to fulfill
Russian military orders and allows the Kremlin to change work conditions for employees. Putin signed the
amendment on July 14, which indicates that the Kremlin will continue to introduce more measures to expand
the Kremlin’s direct control over the operations of Russia’s military-industrial complex.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks east of Siversk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks southwest and northwest of Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian forces destroyed the last functioning bridge Russian forces used to transport military
equipment near the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.
• Ukrainian officials confirmed additional Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots and a
logistics point in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian regional officials may be misrepresenting percentage fill of newly formed volunteer
battalions.
• Ukrainian partisans are likely targeting Russian occupation officials and Ukrainian collaborators who
are preparing for the sham annexation referenda to disrupt the Russian annexation of occupied
Ukraine.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media
and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to
evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and
