1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
August 10
Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Angela Howard, Layne Philipson,
Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
August 10, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials framed the August 9 attack in Crimea as the start of
Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, suggesting that the Ukrainian
military expects intense fighting in August and September that could decide
the outcome of the next phase of the war. A Ukrainian official told Politico on
August 10 that “you can say this is it” when asked about the start of Ukraine’s planned
counteroffensive.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vaguely noted on August 10
that the war “began with Crimea and must end with Crimea - with its liberation.”
Russian officials remain confused about the August 9 attack on the Saki Air
Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, over 225km behind Russian lines, which
destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft and multiple buildings. Satellite
imagery confirmed reports from Ukraine’s air force that the attack destroyed at least eight
Russian aircraft, contradicting Russian claims that the explosions did not damage any
aircraft and were not the result of an attack.
Russian outlets shared conflicting stories:
the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed on August 9 that munitions had been detonated
at a storage site at the airfield due to negligence, not an attack, and claimed that no aircraft
were damaged.
Russian milblogger Rybar claimed on August 10 that the explosion was
likely not caused by a missile strike and hypothesized that the explosions could be due to
negligence and non-compliance with safety regulations or to a small helicopter with a
bomb attacking a nearby parking lot.
Mixed stories in Russian media and among Russian
milbloggers indicate that either officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense have
competing theories regarding the attack and are sharing them with the media, or that the
Kremlin has failed to coordinate its information operation to deny that Ukraine conducted
a successful attack so far behind Russian lines. Russian forces at the airbase likely know
by now what happened but may not yet understand how or from exactly where Ukrainian
forces conducted the attack.
Ukrainian officials are playing up the evident Russian confusion surrounding the attack to
obfuscate Ukraine‘s longer-range capabilities. An anonymous Ukrainian official told the
New York Times that the attack was carried out with the help of partisans.
Another
anonymous Ukrainian official told the Washington Post that Ukrainian special forces
caused the explosion, while other Ukrainian officials implicitly referenced the attack but
did not overtly take credit for it.
ISW still cannot independently assess what caused the
explosions at the airfield—satellite imagery depicts multiple craters and scorch marks, but
such damage could have been caused by many things--special forces, partisans, or
missiles, on-site or from a distance.
Nevertheless, Ukrainian military officials took credit for two long-range missile strikes on
an ammunition depot in Novooleksiivka in Henichensk district (north of Crimea) and on
the battalion tactical group (BTG) command post of the 217
th
Guards Airborne Regiment
