1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9
Kateryna Stepanenko, Angela Howard, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, George
Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
August 9, 7:45 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Ukrainian General Staff made no mention of Izyum in its 1800 situational report on
August 9, nor did other prominent Ukrainian sources despite Western sources’ claims of
an ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in this area. This silence represents a noteworthy
departure from previous Ukrainian coverage of the Kharkiv-Donetsk axis.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within
Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, but Ukrainian officials have
not claimed responsibility for them as of the time of this publication. Social media users
reported witnessing 12 loud explosions at the Saky airbase in Novofedorivka on the Crimean western
coast.
Social media footage only showed the large cloud of smoke and the aftermath of the incident.
Social media footage also showed a large smoke cloud near Novooleksiivka in Henichensk district, in
the vicinity of the Kherson Oblast-Crimean border.
Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration
Serhiy Khlan reported that explosions occurred on the Russian ammunition base but noted that there
is no official confirmation of Ukrainian involvement in the incident.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that several aircraft munitions detonated in the
storage areas of the Saky airbase due to poor fire protocol, rejecting reports that
Ukrainian strikes or sabotage at the military facility caused the explosions.
The Russian
Defense Ministry added that the incident did not result in any casualties or damage to Russian aviation
equipment. The Russian Health Ministry claimed that five civilians were wounded in the incident,
however.
Social media footage also showed firefighters extinguishing a burning plane, which also
contradicts the original Russian Defense Ministry claim.
Russian-appointed Head of Crimea Sergey
Aksyenov claimed that Russian officials are only evacuating a few residents in homes near the airbase,
but social media footage showed long traffic jams approaching the Crimean bridge and the departure
of several minibusses, reportedly with evacuees.
Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan claimed
that the incident was a result of sabotage rather than a missile or rocket strike.
Russian milbloggers
voiced differing opinions regarding the origin of the strike, with some speculating that Ukrainian forces
used US-provided long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS).
Ukrainian forces do not have
the ATACMS systems, however.
The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the
damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense
systems, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed. ISW does not
yet have any basis independently to assess the precise cause of the explosions. The apparent
simultaneity of explosions at two distinct facilities likely rules out the official Russian version of
accidental fire, but it does not rule out either sabotage or long-range missile strike. Ukraine could have
modified its Neptune missiles for land-attack use (as the Russians have done with both anti-shipping
and anti-aircraft missiles), but there is no evidence to support this hypothesis at this time.
Russia launched an Iranian satellite into orbit on August 9 that could be used to provide
military intelligence on Ukraine. Iranian Space Agency Head Hassan Salariyeh stated that the
