Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project, 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Layne Philipson, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, and
Frederick W. Kagan
August 2, 9 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces have likely decided to attack Avdiivka frontally from occupied
Donetsk Oblast territory rather than waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from
their prepared defensive positions as a result of Russian envelopment operations
northeast of the settlement. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Kremlin-sponsored
sources have published videos suggesting that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of their
positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft southwest of Avdiivka.
Ukrainian forces
have held positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft since 2015 and have described
the location as the closest Ukrainian position to Donetsk City and a key defensive outpost for
Avdiivka.
Russian forces have likely captured the Ukrainian position, given the Ukrainian
General Staff‘s vague reports of ”partially” successful Russian advances in the area.
Russian
forces are also continuing assaults on Pisky, west of Avdiivka, and will likely attempt to seize the
E50 highway connecting the two settlements. Russian forces had previously attempted to break
through Avdiivka’s northeastern outskirts but have not made significant progress in months.
The Russian Defense Ministry is likely trying to assuage distress that Ukraine’s
effective use of the US HIMARS is causing Russian military personnel and
milbloggers with inaccurate claims of destroying HIMARS launchers. Russian Defense
Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have destroyed six US-provided HIMARS and
other Western-supplied military equipment in Ukraine in a conference call with the Russian
Armed Forces leadership on August 2.
The Russian Defense Ministry also released a video
claiming to have destroyed a building that housed two HIMARS launchers in Kharkiv Oblast on
August 1.
Ukrainian Southern Command Chief Andriy Kovalchuk said that Russian forces did not
destroy any HIMARS, and an unnamed Finnish official called Russian claims ”wishful thinking.”
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) also reported that Russian defense
authorities are covering up Russian servicemember casualties by transporting wounded Russians
in civilian cars and misreporting the number of casualties caused by Ukrainian HIMARS strikes
in the media.
Ukrainian HIMARS strikes have prompted many milbloggers and military
correspondents to express concern over the effectiveness of air defense systems and the threats to
Russian logistics, and these strikes are likely demoralizing Russian servicemen on the ground.
A representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR)
reported on August 2 that Russia has refused to provide detailed information on
which Ukrainian POWs were killed or injured in the July 28 Olenivka prison attack.
GUR Representative Andriy Yusov said that Russia has not responded to requests by Ukraine’s
Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs for information about casualties from the
likely Russian-perpetrated attack on the Russian-controlled prison that killed at least 53
Ukrainian POWs.
Yusov said that of casualties that Russia has posted online some were supposed
to be in hospitals or being readied for prisoner exchanges and were not supposed to be at the
Olenivka prison. Yusov noted that Ukraine cannot confirm the veracity of online casualty lists at
this time, however. Ukraine’s Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs urged
families of POWs to avoid sharing personal details about themselves or their captured loved ones
