Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1
Kateryna Stepanenko, Layne Philipson, Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan
August 1, 7 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support
defensive positions in southern Ukraine and may be halting the Slovyansk campaign for the time being.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian forces
withdrew airborne tactical groups from Donetsk Oblast and redeployed the units to occupied Kherson
Oblast territories two weeks ago.
Skibitsky added that Russian forces are also redeploying elements of
the Eastern Military District (EMD) operating in Slovyansk to southern Ukraine and are transferring a large
number of troops to Crimea to prepare to defend occupied Kherson and/or Zaporizhia Oblasts against
Ukrainian counteroffensives. The UK Defense Ministry also noted that Russian forces likely identified
Zaporizhia Oblast as a vulnerable front in need of reinforcement, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported
that Russian forces are regrouping in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Social media footage has showed Russian forces
moving equipment and personnel to both Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in recent weeks.
The Russian withdrawal of some troops from northern Donetsk Oblast will deprive the Slovyansk effort
of necessary combat power, in the same way that Russian forces neglected the Zaporizhia and Kherson
Oblasts fronts during offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast. The withdrawal will likely create an
opportunity for Ukrainian forces to launch a counteroffensive on the Izyum axis, just as Russian capture
of Luhansk Oblast allowed Ukraine to set conditions for a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast. The Russian
redeployment of troops to Zaporizhia Oblast also suggests that Ukrainian counteroffensives are not
confined to Kherson Oblast and will likely take place throughout the southern axis.
ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the killing of 53 Ukrainian POWs in an explosion
at a Russian-controlled prison in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Two US officials anonymously
confirmed to Politico on August 1 that no traces of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems
(HIMARS), Ukraine’s most precise artillery system, were found at the prison site.
The Kremlin alleges that
Ukraine fired HIMARS and precision-guided rockets to kill Ukrainian POWs and deter Ukrainian defectors.
Satellite and other imagery from the site indicate that the attack only damaged one building, did not
collapse the walls of that building, and did not leave any shell craters in the vicinity, very strongly
suggesting that the destruction of the prison was the result of either a precision strike or an internally
planted incendiary or explosive.
One US official told Politico that “the evidence showed the attack was
not conducted by Kyiv.” If Ukraine had used something other than HIMARS to conduct the strike, the
attack would almost certainly have left collateral damage around the facility, including craters and other
damaged buildings. Given the US assessment that HIMARS were not used in the attack, ISW assesses that
Russia was responsible for this attack on Ukrainian POWs in violation of the Geneva Conventions.
Key Takeaways
• ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the July 28 attack on the Olenivka prison
that killed 53 Ukrainian POWs; two anonymous US officials confirmed that there is no evidence
that Ukrainian forces used US-provided HIMARS, some of the only munitions Ukraine has that
are precise enough to do the kind of limited damage seen in satellite and other imagery, to
strike the prison.
