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俄罗斯进攻性战役评估，2022年7月30日

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时间：2023-06-20

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1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 30
Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan
July 30, 9:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces are likely prioritizing offensive operations toward Bakhmut and around
Donetsk City at the expense of efforts to take Siversk and Slovyansk. Russian commanders
are likely seeking to exploit recent gains in the Novoluhanske area to pressure Bakhmut from the east.
Their efforts around Donetsk City likely aim to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of the city.
They may also be intended to gain as much ground in Donetsk Oblast as possible before planned
referenda in September. Russian offensive operations are very unlikely to take Bakhmut, which is large
and well-defended, or to make dramatic gains west of Donetsk City even if they manage to take the
towns of Avdiivka and Pisky that have held out against their pressure since the original Russian invasion
in 2014. Fighting in these areas will likely intensify, however, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky is calling on residents to evacuate.
1
Neither Russia nor Ukraine produced new evidence regarding the cause or responsibility
for the deaths of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) at the Olenivka prison in occupied
Donetsk Oblast. Russian officials raised the death toll of the event to 50 and released a list of deceased
POWs.
2
Ukrainian officials stated that they are unable to verify the list at this time and called for an
international investigation.
3
Maxar has provided post-strike imagery of the damage. ISW is unable to
confirm the nature or cause of the incident, although it remains more likely that Russian forces were
responsible.
Overview of damaged buildings in Olenivka prisoner of war facility on July 30. Source: Maxar
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