1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Phillipson,
Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan
July 29, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-
occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28.
Ukraine and Russia are
blaming each other for the attack and available visual evidence appears to
support the Ukrainian claim more than the Russian, but ISW cannot
independently assess the nature of the attack or the party responsible for it
at this time. The Russian Defense Ministry asserted that Ukrainian forces deliberately
struck the Olenivka pre-trial detention center holding Ukrainian POWs including Azov
Regiment servicemen using Western-provided HIMARS, killing at least 40 and wounding
75 POWs.
Kremlin-sponsored news outlet “RIA Novosti” published videos of the
detention center, which showed fire damage but not the sort of damage that a HIMARS
strike would likely have caused.
RIA Novosti also released footage of HIMARS missile
fragments but provided no evidence that the fragments were recovered at Olenivka.
Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Leonid Miroshnik claimed that
Ukrainian forces struck the pre-detention center to eliminate the evidence of Ukrainian
surrenders and prevent POWs from speaking out against the Ukrainian government.
The Ukrainian General Staff said that Russian forces conducted the attack as a false flag
operation to cover up Russian war crimes, disrupt the supply of Western weapons,
discredit Ukrainian forces, and stoke social tensions within Ukrainian society.
The
Ukrainian General Staff stated that a deliberate explosion occurred near the newly-
constructed penal colony, to which Russian forces had transferred Ukrainian POWs a few
days earlier. The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Ukrainian analysis of the damage
to the building, intercepted phone conversations between Russian servicemen, the lack of
reported shelling in Olenivka, and the absence of casualties among Russian personnel
serving at the penal colony all point to a Russian deliberate “terrorist act” as the cause of
the incident.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) accused
Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin of ordering the “terrorist act” without consulting
with the Russian Defense Ministry, to conceal the embezzlement of funds allocated for the
maintenance of Ukrainian POWs before an official inspection on September 1.
The
Ukrainian Office of the General Prosecutor reported that the explosion killed at least 40
and wounded 130 Ukrainian POWs.
ISW is unable to assess the nature of the event or the party responsible for it with any
confidence at this time. We will update our assessment as more information becomes
available.
Key Takeaways
A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-
occupied Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Ukraine and Russia are blaming each
other for the attack. Available visual evidence appears to support the
Ukrainian claim more than the Russian, but ISW cannot independently
assess the nature of the attack or the party responsible for it at this time.
