1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Phillipson, Katherine Lawlor, George Barros, and
Frederick W. Kagan
July 28, 7:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Russian grouping in Donetsk Oblast is likely seeking to capitalize on recent marginal
gains southeast of Bakhmut by continuing to attempt to advance in that area. Russian
forces may be de-emphasizing attempts to take Siversk in order to concentrate on
Bakhmut, but it is too soon to tell. Russian forces continued efforts to advance northward on
Bakhmut from recently gained positions around Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Power Plant while
pursuing southwestward advances along the T1302 highway from recently captured positions in
Berestove. By contrast, Russian forces have been struggling to make concrete gains around Siversk and
have not made any confirmed advances toward the city since the capture of the Luhansk Oblast
Administrative border in early July. Russian command is likely, therefore, seeking to maintain
momentum around Bakhmut, potentially at the expense of continued pressure on Siversk. Russian
forces remain unlikely to take Bakhmut itself, despite recent incremental advances in its direction.
Putin replaced Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko as deputy defense minister and head of
the Main Military-Political Directorate on July 28.
Putin signed a decree appointing Colonel-
General Viktor Goremykin to Zhidko’s position and has not publicly announced the appointment of
Zhidko to a new position.
ISW previously reported that Zhidko would become the overall commander
of Russian forces in Ukraine, a report that appears to have been incorrect.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast likely seek to capitalize on recent marginal
territorial gains around Bakhmut and may deprioritize efforts to take Siversk.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk and
northeast and southwest of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces may be intensifying offensive operations around Avdiivka to reduce
Ukrainian strikes in and around Donetsk City.
• Russian forces may be setting conditions for renewed offensive operations toward
Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces attempted a limited ground offensive on the Southern Axis but are
likely facing territorial losses in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces are attempting to preserve their ground lines of communication
over the Dnipro River connecting Kherson City to rear areas in eastern Kherson
Oblast.
• The Kremlin continued measures to compensate for officer and manpower losses
in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is continuing to institutionalize its occupation administrations in
occupied parts of Ukraine to prepare for sham referenda, annexation, and
integration into Russia.
• Russian occupation forces are continuing to pressure Ukrainian civilians in
occupied areas to use Russian rubles and passports and to attend Russian-run
schools, setting conditions for longer-term social control in occupied territories.
