1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros and Frederick W. Kagan
July 24, 6:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive
operations in Kherson Oblast. Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on July
24 that Ukrainian forces are undertaking unspecified counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 23 that Ukrainian forces are advancing “step by
step” in Kherson Oblast.
His statement does not make clear whether he is referring to small, ongoing
Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast or a broader counteroffensive.
Ukraine’s Southern Operational
Command reported on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are firing on Russian transport facilities in
Kherson Oblast to impede maneuverability and logistics support. This activity is consistent with
support to an active counteroffensive or conditions-setting for an upcoming counteroffensive.
Khlan
also said that Ukrainian strikes on Russian-controlled bridges around Kherson City only aim to prevent
Russian forces from moving equipment into the city without stopping food and other essential supplies
from entering the city.
Alarm in the Russian nationalist information space continues to grow as the pace of
Russian operations slows in the face of successful Ukrainian high-mobility artillery
rocket system (HIMARS) strikes on key Russian logistics and command-and-control
nodes. Moscow Calling, a medium-sized Russian Telegram channel with 31,000 subscribers, posted
an appraisal of the entirety of Russian operations in Ukraine since February 24.
Moscow Calling
defined three distinct phases of the war—the first spanning from initial invasion to the withdrawal of
Russian troops from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts and the second spanning between that point
and the introduction of Western-provided HIMARS.
Moscow Calling notably defined the arrival of
HIMARS as a distinct turning point in the war and stated that previously provided Western weapons
systems (such as NLAWs, Javelins, Stingers, and Bayraktars) did very little against Russian artillery
bombardment (they are not designed or intended to counter artillery attack), but that HIMARS changed
everything for Russian capabilities in Ukraine.
Moscow Calling strongly insinuated that recent
Ukrainian strikes on Russian warehouses, communication hubs, and rear bases are having a
devastating and potentially irreversible impact on the development of future Russian offensives.
This post is consistent with previous reports from Western defense officials that Russian troops are
being forced to engage in various HIMARS mitigation tactics on the battlefield, including camouflage
measures and constantly changing the location of equipment groupings.
These mitigation tactics are
impeding Russian forces from conducting the massive artillery barrages that they have widely employed
over the course of the war, as evidenced by NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS)
data that shows consistently fewer observed heat anomalies over the frontline in Donbas since the
introduction of HIMARS to Ukraine.
