1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Katherine Lawlor, George Barros, and Frederick
W. Kagan
July 27, 7:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in
Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk and the other advancing on
Bakhmut. These operations have focused on advances in the Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, direction from
Verkhnokamianka and Bilohorivka and in the Bakhmut direction from the areas of Novoluhanske and
the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant since the end of the operational pause on July 16.
Russian forces
have committed enough resources to conduct near-daily ground assaults and to seize territory on these
two axes but have been unable to sustain a similar offensive operational tempo or to make similar
territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine. The Russian offensive, therefore, remains likely to culminate
before seizing any other major urban areas in Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces currently appear able to sustain only two significant offensive
operations in Ukraine, both in Donetsk Oblast, and the Russian offensive remains
likely to culminate before seizing additional significant population centers.
• Ukrainian forces may have launched a localized counterattack southwest of Izyum.
• Russian forces attacked settlements east of Siversk and northeast and southeast of
Bakhmut.
• Ground fighting is ongoing north of Kharkiv City.
• Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge for the third time in ten days on
July 27, likely rendering it unusable.
• The Mari El Republic north of Kazan sent two volunteer battalions to train and is
forming a third battalion to deploy to Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities are importing Russians to work in occupied
territories due to a lack of Ukrainian collaborators.
• Mariupol occupation authorities continue withholding humanitarian aid to force
civilians to cooperate with and work for the occupation administration.
