1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
July 23, 6:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a
counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visibility
on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will likely be limited and
lag behind events. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan
stated on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have seized unspecified settlements in Kherson
Oblast but called on Ukrainian civilians to remain silent on the progress of the
counteroffensive until Ukrainian authorities release official statements.
Foreign Policy
National Security Reporter Jack Detsch reported on July 22 that an unspecified senior
US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces have recaptured unspecified “portions of
Russian-occupied villages” in Kherson over the past week of July 15-22, indicating that
Ukrainian forces have made some unspecified territorial advances along frontlines.
The
area between the front line and Kherson City is rural and primarily composed of small
settlements that are less likely to report on force movements and engagements, allowing
control-of-terrain in this area to change without evidence appearing in open-source
reporting. Russian authorities additionally have no incentive to report on Ukrainian
territorial gains. The informational dynamics that allow ISW to report on Russian
offensive operations with relatively little lag are thus inverted in this situation. ISW will
report on the progress of any Ukrainian counteroffensives to the best of its ability within
these constraints.
Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov seemingly confirmed that
Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev has replaced Army General Aleksandr
Dvornikov as acting commander of Russia’s Southern Military District
(SMD).
Kadyrov stated that Kuzovlev, to whom he explicitly referred as acting
commander of the SMD, visited Chechnya on July 23 in order to inspect Kadyrov’s
“Akhmat” battalions.
Kuzovlev had previously served as chief of staff of the SMD and
commanded the Russian grouping in Syria from November 2020 to February 2021.
Kuzovlev’s visit and inspection of Kadyrov’s forces, which comes two days after Kadyrov
announced that these battalions will not be immediately deploying into Ukraine, may
support other hints that Kadyrov is facing mounting domestic pressure.
The anti-
Kadyrov Sheikh Mansour battalion reportedly announced an insurgency against
Kadyrov’s regime on July 21, and Kadyrov may want to hold the newly formed Akhmat
battalions in Chechnya to handle any local unrest.
