1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20
Karolina Hird, George Barros, Grace Mappes, and
Frederick W. Kagan
July 20, 6:15 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas
northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culminate before seizing major populated
areas such as Slovyansk or Bakhmut. Russian forces have not made significant advances towards
Slovyansk or along the Siversk-Bakhmut salient in the past few weeks and are continuing to degrade
their own offensive combat power in localized fights for small and relatively un-important settlements
throughout Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops have notably been attempting to take Siversk since the
capture of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border on July 3 and have still not reached the city as of
July 20.
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Similarly, Russian troops have failed to launch direct assaults on Bakhmut and have largely
impaled themselves on fights for small settlements to its east and south. Efforts to advance on Slovyansk
have mostly ground to a halt and have made no meaningful gains for weeks. The renewal of active
ground offensives following the brief operational pause has not yet translated into meaningful Russian
forward progress, although it is possible that either steady Russian pressure or the completion of
Russian efforts to rebuild combat power could generate limited gains in the coming days or weeks.
Russian troops are now struggling to move across relatively sparsely-settled and open terrain. They
will encounter terrain much more conducive to the Ukrainian defenders the closer they get to the E40
around Slovyansk and Bakhmut due to the increasing population density and built-up nature of these
areas (see map in-line with text). The current Russian offensive in Donbas is therefore highly likely to
culminate somewhere along the E40 in the coming weeks.
