1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, and
Frederick W. Kagan
July 11, 7:10 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to grant Russian forces
access to Belarusian airspace to demonstrate at least nominal support to Russian
President Vladimir Putin without risking direct military involvement of Belarusian
Armed Forces in operations in Ukraine. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of
the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Gromov previously reported on July 7 that the Belarusian
government transferred use of the Pribytki airfield in Gomel Oblast to Russia.
1
Independent Belarusian
monitoring organization The Hajun Project similarly reported on July 11 that a Russian Airborne
Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft flew into Belarusian airspace for the first time since
April 4.
2
The Hajun Project noted that the Belarusian government introduced new airspace restrictions
along the border with Ukraine where the AWACS aircraft patrolled between July 10 and 11.
3
Taken
together, these data points likely indicate that Lukashenko is attempting to provide support to Putin's
war in Ukraine short of direct Belarusian military intervention in an effort to respond to the pressure
Putin is likely putting on him. As ISW has previously assessed, the likelihood of direct Belarusian
involvement in the war in Ukraine remains low due to the effect that might have on the stability and
even survival of Lukashenko’s regime.
4
Key Takeaways
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to allow Russia
access to Belarusian airspace to indicate support to Russian President Vladimir
Putin without risking the consequences of direct Belarusian military involvement
in Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults northwest of
Slovyansk and west of Donetsk City.
Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and Bakhmut.
Russian forces conducted localized ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire
Southern Axis.
