1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessmen
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Frederick
W. Kagan
July 12, 8:10 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. Russian forces
continue to regroup, rest, refit, and reconstitute; bombard critical areas to set conditions for future
ground offensives; and conduct limited probing attacks. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not claim
any new territorial control on July 12.
ISW has previously noted that an operational pause does not
mean a cessation of attacks.
Current Russian offensive actions are likely meant to prepare for future
offensives, the timing of which remains unclear.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reported on July 11 that Iran will
provide Russia with “up to several hundred UAVs” on an expedited timeline.
Sullivan did
not specify the kinds of drones Iran will be supplying. AEI’s Critical Threats Project has provided a
quick summary of the basic kinds and capabilities of Iranian drones. Sullivan noted that Iran will also
provide weapons-capable UAVs and train Russian forces to use Iranian drones as early as July. Russian
milbloggers and war correspondents have long criticized the Kremlin for ineffective aerial
reconnaissance and artillery fire correction measures due to the lack of UAVs. Former Russian military
commander and milblogger Igor Girkin stated that Ukrainian forces have successfully defended the
Donetsk Oblast frontline due to the advantage of Ukrainian UAV capabilities in the area.
Russian
milblogger Andrey Morozov (also known as Boytsevoi Kot Murz) blamed Russian state media for
grossly misrepresenting the availability of Russian UAVs and their ability to support accurate artillery
fire.
Russian frontline correspondent Alexander Sladkov also complained that Russian forces can build
more drones but have not done so.
Key Takeaways
• The Kremlin is reportedly sourcing Iranian UAVs likely to improve Russian aerial
reconnaissance and indirect fire accuracy in Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of
Slovyansk and east of Siversk.
• Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv
City.
• Russian forces likely conducted a false-flag attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear
Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian strikes killed multiple
Russian officers in Kherson City on July 10.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots on the Southern
Axis.
