1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment, June 30
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and Grace
Mappes
June 30, 7:25 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present
in this report.
Russian forces retreated from the Snake Island on June 30 following a
Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign. The Russian Defense
Ministry spun the retreat as “a step of goodwill.”
The Russian Defense
Ministry claimed that the Kremlin does not interfere with United Nations (UN)
efforts to organize a humanitarian corridor for agricultural export from Ukraine
but did not acknowledge the Ukrainian artillery and missile campaign that had
caused the retreat. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command had
announced elements of that campaign on June 21.
The Russian Defense Ministry
has claimed that Russian forces defeated all Ukrainian drone and missile attacks
leading up to their retreat despite considerable evidence to the contrary.
The
Russian defeat on the Snake Island will alleviate some pressure off the Ukrainian
coast by removing Russian air defense and anti-shipping missile systems from the
island. The retreat itself will not end the sea blockade, however, as Russian forces
have access to land-based anti-ship systems in Crimea and western Kherson Oblast
that can still target Ukrainian cargo as well as the use of the remaining ships of the
Black Sea Fleet.
Russian milbloggers overwhelmingly defended the Russian decision to
withdraw troops and equipment from the island, claiming that Russian
forces are prioritizing the “liberation of Donbas.”
Some said that Russian
forces do not have enough capacity to destroy Ukrainian coastal troops and others
claimed that Russian forces will be more successful in striking Ukrainians when
they attempt to deploy their own troops to the island. Milbloggers have previously
criticized the Russian military command for failing to retreat to save equipment
and manpower and are likely content with the Russian retreat from the Snake
Island.
Milbloggers, following the Kremlin line, did not acknowledge the role
Ukrainian strikes against the island played in compelling Russian forces to retreat.
Russian authorities continue to galvanize the support of proxy actors
to support force generation efforts. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov
announced on June 29 that another Akhmat special battalion, the Vostok (East)-
Akhmat battalion, has been successfully formed and will shortly move to its point
of permanent deployment and begin active service.
As ISW reported on June 28,
Kadyrov stated he intends to form four new Akhmat special operations battalions
and announced the formation of the Zapad (west)-Akhmat battalion early this
week.
