Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
June 28
Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Mason Clark,
and Grace Mappes
June 28, 7:45 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a fighting withdrawal that may include
pulling back from Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast in the near future which
probably aims to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely. The
Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik and Russian
milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces began a large-scale withdrawal from
Lysychansk towards Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk on June 28.
Although ISW
cannot confirm independently Miroshnik’s claims of an ongoing withdrawal, Ukrainian
forces may continue the fighting withdrawal that began in Severodonetsk to Ukrainian
strongholds around Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk. The staunch but limited
Ukrainian defense of Severodonetsk imposed high costs on the Russians despite new
Russian tactics intended to limit Russian casualties. Kyiv could continue this approach
until the Russian attack culminates or Ukrainian forces reach more defensible positions
along a straighter line dotted with fortified cities and towns.
The pace and outcome of the next phase of the current campaign may depend
in part on Russia’s ability to recoup combat power from the forces that
participated in the Battle of Severodonetsk. The remaining Russian forces in
Severodonetsk will need to cross the Siverskyi Donets River into Lysychansk from
Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements to participate further in the Russian
offensive. This movement could require some time since the Russians destroyed the three
main bridges across the river near the city. Miroshnik claimed that Russian forces have
already crossed the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna and are building bridgeheads
for further attacks on Lysychansk from the north.
ISW cannot independently verify
Miroshnik’s claims. If they are true, and Russian forces threaten to complete the cauldron
by pushing from the north and southwest of Lysychansk, then Ukrainian forces will likely
abandon Lysychansk as well and conduct a fighting withdrawal to more defensible
positions. Russian forces that have engaged in continuous offensive operations in
Severodonetsk will also require some time to restore combat capabilities before
participating in an assault on northern or northeastern Lysychansk. An unnamed
Pentagon official stated that Russian forces continue to endure significant losses in fights
for small territorial gains, and Russian groups that fought in Severodonetsk likely lost
personnel and equipment.
The locations and strength of the Russian troops that seized
Severodonetsk remain unclear at this time, however. A notable acceleration of Russian
attacks from the south of Lysychansk or from across the Siverskyi Donetsk River would
likely indicate that the Russians have completed a redeployment of forces from
Severodonetsk. ISW has not yet observed such indicators.
Ukraine’s Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported that the Kremlin
replaced Western Military District (WMD) Commander Alexander Zhuravlev
with the former commander of the 8
th
Combined Arms Army (CAA) Andrey
Sychevoy.
CIT added that WMD Chief of Staff Aleksey Zavizion was relieved. ISW
