1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 22, 5:45 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the
effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a key Ukrainian capability in the war.
Foreign Policy’s Jack Detsch quoted several anonymous Ukrainian officials and military personnel that
Ukrainian forces have largely halted the use of Turkish Bayraktar drones, which were used to great
effect earlier in the war, due to improvements in Russian air-defense capabilities.
Ukrainian officials
are reportedly increasingly concerned that US-provided Gray Eagle strike drones will also be shot down
by reinforced Russian air defense over the Donbas.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly scaled back air
operations to 20 to 30 sorties per day and are facing a deficit of available aircraft for active pilots.
Russian forces are likely prioritizing deploying air defenses to eastern Ukraine to nullify Ukrainian
operations and to protect the artillery systems Russian forces are reliant on to make advances. However,
the Ukrainian air force and armed drones remain active elsewhere, inflicting several successful strikes
on targets in Kherson Oblast in the last week.
Members of the Russian military community continue to comment on the shortcomings
of Russian force generation capabilities, which are having tangible impacts on the
morale and discipline of Russians fighting in Ukraine. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok
claimed that Russian troops lack the numbers and strength for success in combat in Ukraine.
Kotyenok
accused Russian leadership of deploying new and under-trained recruits and called for replenishment
of forces with well-trained recruits with ground infantry experience—though the Russian military is
unlikely to be able to quickly generate such a force, as ISW has previously assessed. Despite growing
calls for increased recruitment from nationalist figures, Russian leadership continues to carry out
coercive partial mobilization efforts that are only producing limited numbers of replacements while
negatively impacting the morale and discipline of forcibly mobilized personnel. Ukraine’s Security
Service (SBU) claimed that Russian authorities in Luhansk are arranging gas leaks in apartment
buildings to force men who are hiding from mobilization into the streets.
The Ukrainian Main
Intelligence Directorate (GUR) additionally reported that Russian soldiers in occupied Tokmak,
Zaporizhia Oblast, are appealing to local Ukrainian doctors to issue them certificates alleging medical
inability to continue military service.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike (likely with a loitering munition, though this
cannot be confirmed) on a Russian oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast, on
June 22.
Russian Telegram channel Voenyi Osvedomitel claimed that the strike, which targeted
Russian infrastructure within 15 km of the Ukrainian border, originated from Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces have not targeted Russian infrastructure for several weeks, and this strike is likely an
attempt to disrupt Russian logistics and fuel supply to Russian operations in eastern Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued to make gains to the south of Lysychansk and will likely
reach the city in the coming days, although they are unlikely to quickly capture the
Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk and made minor
advances.
