1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
June 24, 7:15 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials ordered a controlled withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk on
June 24. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces are
withdrawing from “broken positions” in Severodonetsk to prevent further personnel losses and
maintain a stronger defense elsewhere.
Severodonetsk Regional Military Administration Head Roman
Vlasenko stated that several Ukrainian units remain in Severodonetsk as of June 24, but Ukrainian
forces will complete the full withdrawal in “a few days.”
An unnamed Pentagon official noted that
Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will allow Ukrainian troops to secure better defensive
positions and further wear down Russian manpower and equipment.
The Pentagon official noted that
Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already show signs of “wear and tear” and “debilitating
morale,” which will only further slow Russian offensive operations in Donbas. Russian forces have been
attempting to seize Severodonetsk since at least March 13, exhausting their forces and equipment over
three months.
Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to
exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian forces will occupy higher
ground in Lysychansk, which may allow them to repel Russian attacks for some time if the Russians are
unable to encircle or isolate them. Russian forces in Severodonetsk will also need to complete river
crossings from the east, which will require additional time and effort. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR)
Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that Russian forces will completely encircle Lysychansk in the next two
or three days after fully interdicting Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs).
Russian
forces have successfully secured access to Ukrainian GLOCs along the Hirske-Lysychansk highway by
breaking through Hirske on June 24, but Russian forces will need to cut Ukrainian logistics routes from
Bakhmut and Siversk to fully isolate Lysychansk. Russian forces are likely to face challenges completing
a larger encirclement around Lysychansk due to a failed river crossing in Bilohorivka, northwest of
Lysychansk, in early May. Ukrainian forces will likely conduct a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk
if Russian forces threaten Ukrainian strongholds in the area.
Ukrainian intelligence warned that Russian forces will carry out false-flag attacks in
Belarus to draw Belarusian forces into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian
Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian sabotage groups and mercenaries arrived
in Mozyr, Belarus, to detonate apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure around the city.
The
GUR noted that Russian saboteurs will follow a pattern similar to apartment bombings in Chechnya in
the early 2000s. Ukrainian officials have previously reported on possible false-flag attacks in Belarus
throughout the past four months.
Unidentified assailants resumed attacks against Russian military recruitment centers on
June 24, indicating intensifying discontent with covert mobilization. Russian outlet Baza
reported two incidents where unknown attackers threw Molotov Cocktails at military recruitment
offices in Belgorod City and Perm on June 24.
Baza also reported that Belgorod Oblast Police started
a search for four contract servicemen—one sergeant and three ordinary soldiers–who have deserted
their military unit stationed in Belgorod Oblast.
