1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 18, 2:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, December 18. This report
discusses recent efforts by Russian military leadership to address Russian failures in
Ukraine, the planned December 19 meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin
and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and continued efforts by Wagner
Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to legitimize the Wagner Group and bolster his own
reputation.
Russian military leadership is engaged in a campaign to present itself as part of an
effective wartime apparatus in an effort to address the public perception of Russian
failures in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) posted footage on December 18
reportedly of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on a working trip to the Southern Military District
(SMD) and inspecting the Russian force grouping in the combat zone in Ukraine.
Shoigu reportedly
received briefings from field commanders and spoke directly with personnel on the frontline paying
“special attention to the organization of comprehensive support for the troops, the conditions for
deploying personnel in the field, as well as the work of medical and rear units.”
The Russian MoD
posted footage on December 17 of Shoigu attending a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and Commander of the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine
Sergei Surovikin to discuss near and mid-term proposals for Russian operations in Ukraine.
Shoigu’s
recent engagements suggest that the Russian MoD is attempting to bolster its reputation as an effective
military organ in the face of consistent criticism of its conduct of the war by the pro-war community.
The recent concerted efforts by Russian military officials to present themselves as actively engaged in
planning and controlling the war effort, especially in the absence of tangible military victories in
Ukraine, may suggest that Russia is preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the coming
months. Shoigu’s visit to the SMD—with its focus on sustainment and medical support—is
likely part of an effort to show that the military leadership is fixing the Russian military’s
devastating failures in those areas that have been the subject of constant angry
commentary by milbloggers and protests by soldiers and their families.
Putin’s planned December 19 meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
is likely part of the same effort to present proactivity as well as an effort to set
information conditions for a new phase of the war. Commander of the Ukrainian Combined
Forces Serhiy Nayev commented on the upcoming Putin-Lukashenko meeting and noted that it comes
after Putin’s December 17 meeting with the Russian military command to discuss both immediate and
mid-term goals for the war.
Nayev reported that the Ukrainian government believes Putin will discuss
the wider involvement of Belarusian forces in further Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is
consistent with ISW’s forecast for the meeting.
Taken in tandem, Putin’s meeting with the Russian
command, Shoigu’s purported frontline visit, and the Putin-Lukashenko meeting suggest a new phase
in the presentation, planning, and conduct of the war and may presage renewed offensive operations
against Ukraine in the coming months.
