Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Madison
Williams, Yekaterina Klepanchuk, and Frederick W. Kagan
November 15, 10:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces conducted the largest set of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical
infrastructure since the start of the war. Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy
Ignat reported on November 15 that Russian forces launched about 100 Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise
missiles at targets in Ukraine, primarily against Ukrainian critical infrastructure facilities.
1
The
Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces targeted Ukrainian infrastructure with ten
drones.
2
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian forces struck targets in Kyiv as well as
in Rivne, Zhytomyr, Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kirovohrad,
Cherkasy, Volyn, and Kharkiv oblasts.
3
The Russian military likely used a substantial portion of its remaining high-precision
weapon systems in the coordinated missile strikes on November 15. The Ukrainian General
Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 73 Russian cruise missiles and all drones on
November 15.
4
Ukrainian air defenses had previously shot down 43 cruise missiles out of 84 and 13
drones out of 24 during the October 10 coordinated Russian missile strikes.
5
Ukraine‘s increased shoot-
down percentage illustrates the improvement in Ukrainian air defenses in the last month, and the
Ukrainian General Staff attributed this improvement to the effectiveness of Western-provided air
defense systems. ISW also assesses that Russian forces are greatly depleting their stock of high-
precision weapons systems and will likely have to slow the pace of their campaign against critical
Ukrainian infrastructure.
6
Russian missile strikes continue to pose a threat to the Ukrainian civilian
population with Ukrainian Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko stating that the
energy situation is rather “critical” in Ukraine.
7
Damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is
unlikely to break Ukrainians’ spirit, however, given Ukraine’s improving air defenses
and recent ground victories in Kherson Oblast.
Polish officials announced that a likely “Russian-made missile” landed in Poland within
six kilometers of the international border with Ukraine. Western officials have yet to
make definitive statements regarding the incident. The Polish Foreign Ministry stated on
November 15 that a “Russian-made missile” killed two Polish citizens in the border village of
Przewodow.
8
Polish President Andrzej Duda noted that Poland does not currently have information
regarding the actor responsible for firing the missile but noted that the missile was “most probably
Russian-made.”
9
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied Russia’s involvement in striking any
targets near the Ukraine-Polish border and claimed that the incident is a “provocation.”
10
Russian
forces, however, did target energy infrastructure in Lviv City, about 72km south of Przewodow.
11
US
President Joe Biden stated that according to preliminary information it is unlikely that the missile was
fired from territorial Russia but emphasized that the investigation is still ongoing as of the time of this
publication.
12
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of staging a “serious
provocation” on NATO territory.
13
ISW will continue to monitor the situation.
