Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
November 5
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, and
Mason Clark
November 5, 6:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to
strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the concept of
Russia’s historic unity. Prigozhin provided a vague response to a media inquiry
regarding his recent visit to Kursk Oblast on Russia’s Unity Day (November 4), during which
he had indirectly implied that Wagner forces are involved in upholding Russia’s unity.
Prigozhin stated that Russian people, businesses, government, and army need to come
together to fight for Russia’s sovereignty and its great future while deflecting from the
journalist’s question regarding Prigozhin’s reported meeting with Kursk businessmen about
the organization of an unspecified people’s militia – outside of formal Russian military
command structures. Prigozhin also noted that Russia has all the ingredients to achieve its
goals including a strong president, cohesive army, and great nationhood, which he
concluded with an out-of-place greeting from Wagner fighters. Prigozhin later claimed in a
follow up media response that his “independence” does not contradict Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s politics as some audiences have interpreted.
Prigozhin’s rather sarcastic statements have several underlying implications for his
perception of his power within Russia. ISW previously reported that Kursk Oblast officials
announced the construction of second and third lines of defenses in the region, and if
Prigozhin’s meeting with local businessmen took place, may indicate that he is attempting
to expand his influence in the region.
Prigozhin’s comment on Russia’s ”cohesive army”
next to Putin was likely thinly-veiled sarcasm, given that Prigozhin has repeatedly criticized
the Russian Armed Forces on numerous occasions.
Prigozhin also directly recognized that
he is an independent entity, which as ISW previously assessed, relieves him of some
obligations to the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Putin’s dependency
on Prigozhin’s forces around Bakhmut also allows Prigozhin privileges such as voicing his
criticisms of the Kremlin or the Russian Armed Forces without significant ramifications.
Prigozhin has also coincidentally opened his Wagner Center in St. Petersburg on Russia’s
Unity Day.
However, Prigozhin is notably shielding his efforts to build an independent
power base and shape the conduct of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with language focused on
Russian Unity – likely both to appeal to Russian nationalists and civilians and to deflect
criticism of his fairly overt efforts to build an independent power base.
Prigozhin continues to rely on ineffective convicts to staff his forces. Prigozhin
declined to comment on a reporter’s question regarding ongoing recruitment drives at
Krasnoyarsk Krai penal colonies, despite previously openly discussing prisoner
participation in the war with Russian outlets like RiaFan.
Russian opposition outlet The
Insider, however, found that over 500 prisoners recruited into Wagner units have died in
the past two months.
The publication added that Wagner lost between 800 and 1,000
