Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Madison Williams,
Yekaterina Klepanchuk, and Frederick W. Kagan
November 2, 8:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term
damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has previously forecasted. Financial
experts told Reuters that the Kremlin will face a budget deficit that will “drain Moscow’s reserves to
their lowest level in years” due to projected decreases in energy revenue, sanctions, and the cost of
Russian mobilization.
One expert predicted that payouts to mobilized men including social benefits
may cost the Kremlin between 900 billion rubles and three trillion rubles (around $14.6-$32.4 billion)
in the next six months. The number does not account for payouts to other categories of servicemen
within the Russian forces such as BARS (Combat Army Reserve), volunteer battalions, and the long-
term commitment to veterans' payments to contract servicemen, volunteers, non-military specialists
who moved to occupied territories, and proxy fighters.
ISW previously estimated that one volunteer
battalion of 400 servicemen costs Russia at least $1.2 million per month excluding enlistment bonuses
and special payments for military achievements.
The Kremlin is continuing to rely heavily on financially incentivizing Russians to fight in
Ukraine, which will likely continue to strain the Russian economy for decades. Russian
officials have been promising salaries to volunteers and mobilized men that are more than twice the
average Russian civilian salary before and during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin
has been attempting to deflect part of the cost of the force generation effort onto Russian federal
subjects but will likely need to tap into the federal budget more heavily soon. United Russia Party
Secretary Andrey Turchak, for example, stated that Russian servicemen from all regions must receive
uniform benefits and noted that the federal government must cover the difference if the federal subject
is unable to fully compensate all participants of the “special military operation.”
Donetsk People’s
Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin even acknowledged that there are insufficient measures in place
to support mobilized personnel and their families in occupied Donetsk Oblast during a United Russia
meeting.
The Kremlin is already facing challenges in delivering promised compensation,
challenges that are increasing social tensions within Russian society. Russian Telegram
channels released footage of mobilized men in Ulyanovsk protesting payment issues.
Other footage
from the Chuvashia Republic shows a presumably Russian local official yelling at protesting mobilized
men that she had not promised them a payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,860).
Families of
mobilized men publicly complained to Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Guseyev that they have
not received promised compensation of 120,000 rubles (about $1,945).
The Kremlin will need to
continue to pay what it has promised to maintain societal control and some resemblance of morale
among Russia’s ad hoc collection of forces. ISW has also reported that the Kremlin is igniting conflict
within Russian military formations amalgamated from different sources by offering different payments,
