1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 23
By Mason Clark
October 23, 5:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, October 23. This report
focuses on Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's several calls with his western counterparts
and preposterous claims that Ukraine is preparing a false-flag “dirty bomb” attack
against Russia, likely to pressure Ukraine into concessions and intimidate NATO. On the
battlefield, Ukrainian forces conducted further offensive operations in northeastern
Ukraine, and Russian forces continued to set conditions for a withdrawal from Kherson.
Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail
tomorrow.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely sought to slow or suspend Western
military aid to Ukraine and possibly weaken the NATO alliance in scare-mongering calls
with several NATO defense ministers on October 23. Shoigu separately called his counterparts
from France, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States on October 23, claiming that Ukraine
is preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb (a conventional explosive laced with
radioactive material that is not a nuclear weapon) to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass
destruction.
Russian state media amplified this false and ridiculous claim.
Russian Ministry of
Defense reports on the calls contain slight differences; they state that Shoigu discussed a claimed
“steady tendency towards further, uncontrolled escalation” in Ukraine in the call with his French
counterpart; discussed the “situation in Ukraine” and made false claims that Ukraine is preparing to
use a dirty bomb in his calls with the United Kingdom, France, and Turkey; and simply discussed the
situation in Ukraine without reference to a dirty bomb in his conversation with US Secretary of Defense
Lloyd Austin. Shoigu last spoke with Secretary Austin on October 21. Representatives from the United
States, United Kingdom, and Ukraine categorically denied and condemned Shoigu’s false allegations,
and US Secretary Austin called his UK counterpart, Ben Wallace, following the calls with Shoigu.
France and Turkey have not issued formal statements as of this writing.
The Kremlin is unlikely to be preparing an imminent false-flag dirty bomb attack. Shoigu’s
claims further a longstanding Russian information campaign. The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that
Western states will help Ukraine conduct a false-flag WMD attack since the earliest stages of its invasion
of Ukraine in February. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed it had information the US was
“preparing provocations to accuse the Russian Armed Forces of using chemical, biological, or tactical
nuclear weapons” in April.
Putin claimed in his pre-invasion speech on February 24 that Ukraine was
preparing for a nuclear attack against Russia, and Russian state disinformation outlets repeatedly
claimed Western states were supporting Ukraine’s development of nuclear weapons and planning false-
flag attacks.
Shoigu’s claims likely do not portend Russian preparations to use non-strategic nuclear
weapons in Ukraine either. ISW previously stated on September 30 that “ISW cannot forecast the
point at which Putin would decide to use nuclear weapons. Such a decision would be inherently
personal, but Putin’s stated red lines for nuclear weapon use have already been crossed in this war
several times over without any Russian nuclear escalation.”
Russia does not “need,” under formal
Russian nuclear doctrine, a further event to justify nuclear weapons use.
Ukraine is not apparently on
the verge of tripping some new Russian redline, on the other hand, that might cause Putin to use non-
