1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10
Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, and Frederick W.
Kagan
October 10, 9:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including
Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched over 84 cruise
missiles and 24 drone attacks, 13 of which were carried out with Iranian-made Shahed-136
drones.[1] Ukrainian air defense shot down 43 cruise missiles, 10 Shahed-136 drones, and 3 unspecified
drones. Russian forces launched missiles from 10 strategic bombers operating in the Caspian Sea and
from Nizhny Novgorod, Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, and 6 missile carriers in the Black
Sea.[2] Russian forces launched the Shahed-136 drones from Crimea and Belarus.[3] Ukrainian media
reported that Russian missile strikes hit 70 targets, including 29 critical infrastructure facilities, 4 high-
rise buildings, 35 residential buildings, and a school.[4]
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to have ordered the missile strikes on Ukrainian
infrastructure in retaliation for a “terrorist act” at the Kerch Strait Bridge, likely in part to
curry favor with the Russian pro-war nationalist camp that has been demanding such
retaliation.[5] Putin accused Ukraine during his meeting with the Russian Security Council of
conducting terrorist acts against Russian civilian and critical infrastructure, namely against the Kerch
Strait Bridge, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), and segments of the Turkish Stream gas
transmission system.[6] Ukrainian officials have not formally taken responsibility for the explosion at the
Kerch Strait Bridge.[7] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) also reported that
Putin has been planning this attack prior to the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion, and if true, could indicate
that Putin planned this attack for the deflection of the Kharkiv-Izyum-Lyman failures.[8]
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also attended the meeting despite speculations that Putin would
force him to resign, which may suggest that Putin settled on responding to only one of the pro-war
community’s demands at this time.
Putin emphasized that he would conduct proportional escalation in any future retaliatory
actions. He stated that if Ukraine continues to carry out “terrorist attacks against [Russian] territory,
then Russian responses will be harsh, and their scale will correspond to the level of the threat to the
Russian Federation.” This declaration of proportionality suggests that Putin intends to continue climbing
the escalation ladder rung by rung and cautiously rather than jumping to more dramatic measures such as
the use of nuclear weapons. Putin may also mean to message the Russian pro-war camp that they should
manage their expectations of an ongoing daily bombardment of Ukraine similar to the one conducted
today.[9] Russian milbloggers, for their part, have overwhelmingly welcomed the strikes and amplified
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that more attacks against
Ukraine will follow soon.[10] Ukrainian and Western intelligence have previously reported that Russia
has spent a significant portion of its high-precision missiles, and Putin likely knows better than Medvedev
or the milbloggers that he cannot sustain attacks of this intensity for very long.[11]
The October 10 Russian attacks wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons
against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets. The Russian Ministry of
Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces successfully completed the mission of striking Ukrainian
military command centers, signal infrastructure, and energy systems in Ukraine.[12] Social media shows
that Russians instead hit a children’s playground, a park, a German consulate, and a business center
among other non-military targets.[13] Ukrainian air defenses also shot down half of the Russian drones
and cruise missiles. Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid will not likely break Ukraine’s will to
fight, but Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options
to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts.
