Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8
Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W.
Kagan
October 8, 10:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with
Russia on October 8. Maxar satellite imagery shows that the explosion collapsed one lane of the road
bridge and damaged the nearby railway track.
The Russian Investigative Committee stated that a truck
exploded on the bridge and ignited seven fuel tanks on the railroad.
A small fraction of Russian
milbloggers speculated that Ukrainian saboteurs used a boat to detonate the bridge from the sea,
though there is no visible evidence for such a conclusion.
The Kremlin refrained from accusing Ukraine
of sabotage or attack, echoing similar restraint following the sinking of the cruiser Moskva and the
Ukrainian strike on Saky airfield in Crimea.
Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the incident, but
The New York Times reported that an unnamed senior Ukrainian official stated that Ukrainian
intelligence participated in the explosion.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted that the
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a government commission composed of government
officials, security services, and the Ministry of Emergency Situations to investigate the ”emergency.”
The explosion will not permanently disrupt critical Russian ground lines of
communication (GLOCs) to Crimea, but its aftermath is likely to increase friction in
Russian logistics for some time. The road bridge appears at least partially operational, and the
railroad bridge did not suffer significant structural damage according to Russian reports that generally
seem plausible based on the available video evidence. Russian footage shows people walking on the
damaged road bridge and a train moving on the railroad bridge.
The Head of occupied Crimea Sergey
Aksyonov claimed that the remaining lane of the road bridge opened to cars and buses after a rigorous
security check, but that trucks must move by ferry.
The collapsed lane of the road bridge will restrict
Russian military movements until it is repaired, forcing some Russian forces to rely on the ferry
connection for some time. Russian forces will likely still be able to transport heavy military equipment
via the railroad. Russian officials will likely intensify security checks on all vehicles crossing the bridge,
however, adding delays to the movement of Russian military equipment, personnel, and supplies to
Crimea. Putin has already signed a decree strengthening the security protocol on the bridge under the
supervision of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).
The Kremlin is likely continuing to frame the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as the
scapegoat for the Kerch Bridge explosion and other Russian military failures to deflect
the blame from Putin. The Russian MoD has not issued an official statement regarding the incident
as of this publication.
Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that the Russian Presidential
Administration sent out a guide to Russian mass media on the appropriate way to downplay the severity
of the damage to the bridge, and it is possible that the Kremlin has ordered the Russian MoD to remain
quiet regarding the situation.
Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov stated that Russia must initiate
a strike campaign on critical Ukrainian infrastructure instead of listening to Russian MoD promises.
Some nationalist voices noted that Putin and his close circle are failing to immediately
address the attack on a symbolic bridge, voicing direct criticism of Putin for the first
