Institute for the Study of War &
AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5
Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and
Frederick W. Kagan
October 5, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv counteroffensive has not yet culminated after one month of
successful operations and is now advancing into western Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces
captured Hrekivka and Makiivka in western Luhansk Oblast (approximately 20 km southwest of
Svatove) on October 5.
Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces have begun
liberating unspecified villages in Luhansk Oblast on October 5.
Ukrainian forces began the maneuver
phase of their counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast— which has now reached Luhansk Oblast—on
September 6.
Russian forces have failed to hold the banks of the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers and
leverage them as natural boundaries to prevent Ukrainian forces from projecting into vulnerable
sections of Russian-occupied northeast Ukraine. The terrain in western Luhansk is suitable for the kind
of rapid maneuver warfare that Ukrainian forces used effectively in eastern Kharkiv Oblast in early
September, and there are no indications from open sources that the Russian military has substantially
reinforced western Luhansk Oblast. Ukraine’s ongoing northern and southern counteroffensives are
likely forcing the Kremlin to prioritize the defense of one area of operations at the expense of another,
potentially increasing the likelihood of Ukrainian success in both.
Russian forces conducted a Shahed-136 drone strike against Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast,
on October 5, the first Russian strike in Kyiv Oblast since June.
Footage from the aftermath
of the strike shows apparent damage to residential structures.
Russian milbloggers lauded the
destructive capability of the Shahed-136 drones but questioned why Russian forces are using such
technology to target areas deep in the Ukrainian rear and far removed from active combat zones. That
decision fits into the larger pattern of Russian forces expending high-precision technology on areas of
Ukraine that hold limited operational significance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Putin issued a decree transferring control of the
ZNPP to Russian state company Rosenergoatom on October 5.
The ZNPP’s current Ukrainian operator
Energoatom announced that its president assumed the position of General Director of the ZNPP on
October 5.
The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian officials are coercing ZNPP workers
into obtaining Russian passports and signing employment contracts with Rosenergoatom.
International Atomic Energy Agency General Director Rafael Grossi plans to meet with both Ukrainian
and Russian officials this week in Kyiv and Moscow to discuss the creation of a “protective zone” around
the ZNPP.
Russian officials will likely attempt to coerce the IAEA in upcoming discussions and
negotiations into recognizing Rosenergoatom’s official control of the ZNPP, and by implication Russia’s
illegal annexation of Zaporizhia Oblast.
The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him
the rank of colonel general on October 5.
This promotion is particularly noteworthy in the
context of the recent controversy surrounding Kadyrov and his direct criticism of Central Military
District (CMD) Colonel General Aleksander Lapin, which ISW has previously analyzed.
