1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27
Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, and Mason Clark
September 27, 8:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and
Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation “referenda” on September 27 and
implausibly claimed that each sham referendum received between 87 and 99% approval
from Ukrainian residents.
Russian officials pre-ordained and falsified the approval ratings and
alleged voter participation rates for the sham referenda while coercing Ukrainian civilians in occupied
territories to performatively vote for Russian annexation, as ISW has previously reported.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of
occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30. The completion of the performative referenda
marks the last prerequisite for Russian President Vladimir Putin to declare the Russian annexation of
occupied Ukrainian territory. The UK Ministry of Defense reported that Putin will likely make the
declaration before or during an address to both houses of Russia's parliament on Friday, September
30.
Putin followed a similar approach when he illegally annexed Ukrainian Crimea in 2014: a sham
referendum, followed by a presidential decree of recognition and a treaty of accession that the Russian
Federal Assembly formally approved within five days of the sham Crimean referendum. The Russian
proxy leader of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), Denis Pushilin, told Russian media on
September 27 that he previously asked Putin to approve the results of the referendum before it was held
and would travel to Moscow to sign an agreement.
The head of Russia’s proxy Luhansk People’s
Republic (LNR), Leonid Pasechnik, announced on September 27 that the LNR will join Russia “very
soon” and that he will travel to Moscow on September 27 or 28 to ask Putin in person to approve the
results of the sham referenda.
ISW previously forecasted that Putin will annex occupied Ukrainian
territory by or soon after October 1 to enable the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians into the
Russian military in the normal autumn conscription cycle.
Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District
(WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training. A
mobilized servicemember of the 1st Tank Regiment of an unspecified unit recorded a video plea stating
that his unit will not receive training prior to deploying to Kherson Oblast on September 29.
RFE/RL’s
Mark Krutov geolocated the serviceman’s surroundings to the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division’s base
in Kalininets, Moscow Oblast. ISW previously reported that Russian forces have committed elements
of the 147
th
Artillery Regiment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division to Kherson Oblast in late August, and
are likely attempting to reinforce units in the south (that have operated in Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblasts) in
short periods with untrained, newly-mobilized men.
Elements of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division
previously based out of Izyum asked to leave their positions on August 30 due to moral exhaustion.
Russian opposition outlet Mediazona also reported that mobilized men of the 237th Tank Regiment of
the WMD’s 3rd Motor Rifle Division based out of Valuyki are deploying to Donbas frontlines after only
one day of training.
ISW cannot independently verify Mediazona’s report, but the 237th Regiment also
operated around Izyum since late March.
Mobilized men with a day or two of training are unlikely to
meaningfully reinforce Russian positions affected by Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south and east.
