Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,
March 17, 2023
Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne
Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 17, 6:25pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps
that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-
lapse map archive monthly.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin
during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to discuss sanctions evasion
schemes and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in
Ukraine. The Kremlin stated that Putin and Xi plan to sign unspecified bilateral documents and
discuss topical issues in Russia’s and China’s comprehensive partnership.
Chinese companies
have reportedly sold rifles, drone parts, and equipment to Russian entities that could be used for
military purposes, and Western intelligence agencies have stated that Chinese leadership is
considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia.
Xi likely plans to discuss sanctions
evasion schemes with Putin and Russian officials to support the sale and provision of Chinese
equipment to Russia. ISW previously assessed that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
and Xi signed a package of 16 agreements on March 1 that may facilitate Russian sanctions evasion
by channeling Chinese products through Belarus.
Xi also likely aims to promote Chinese efforts
aiming to position China as an impartial third-party mediator for negotiations between Russia
and Ukraine. China released a broad 12-point peace plan for the war in Ukraine on February 24,
although it remains unclear what more definitive Chinese proposals for a negotiated settlement
to the war would encompass. Xi may seek to parlay his success in mediating the restoration of
diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia into a larger effort to mediate in this war.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Belarusian industry is
supplying Russia with electronic components, potentially supporting previous ISW
assessments that Belarus may assist Russia in evading Western sanctions.
Lukashenko stated on March 17 that Belarus and Russia signed an agreement on establishing a
joint Belarusian-Russian center for the development and production of photomasks (an
intermediate good used in the production of integrated circuits), that the two states have
developed a list of critically important electronic components, and that Belarusian industry has
already begun shipping unspecified microelectronics to Russian enterprises.
ISW previously
assessed that Belarus might facilitate sanction evasion for Russia and that China might
clandestinely transfer goods and/or equipment to Russia via Belarus.
The US State Department
sanctioned several additional Belarusian defense entities and tightened existing export controls
to Belarus as of February 24, 2023, but these sanctions may not be comprehensive enough to
prevent Belarus from sending Russia electronic components used in weapon systems and other
dual use technologies.
Lukashenko made this announcement at the Belarusian Planar Joint Stock
Company technological enterprise, which the US does not appear to have sanctioned.
