Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15,
2023
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson,
Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan
March 15, 7:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map
archive monthly.
The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared
to previous weeks. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisk Defense
Forces, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated on March 15 that Russian offensive actions have
decreased significantly over the last week and noted that daily Russian ground attacks have decreased
from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.
Dmytrashkivskyi reported that Russian forces have
somewhat lost offensive potential due to significant manpower and equipment losses.
Dmytrashkivskyi’s statements are consistent with ISW’s general observation regarding the pace of
Russian operations along the entire frontline in Ukraine. The Russian offensive operation in Luhansk
Oblast is likely nearing culmination, if it has not already culminated, although Russia has committed
most elements of at least three divisions to the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces have made only
minimal tactical gains along the entire Luhansk Oblast frontline over the last week, and Ukrainian
forces have likely recently managed to conduct counterattacks and regain territory in Luhansk Oblast.
ISW has been unable to confirm the commitment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank
Army, Western Military District) to the offensive in Luhansk Oblast since certain unspecified elements
reportedly deployed to Luhansk Oblast in January--the only large formation assessed to be operational
but not yet engaged.
It is unclear if the 2nd Motor Rifle Division has already deployed and has not been
observed or if it is waiting to deploy to either Luhansk Oblast or other areas of the front. The
commitment of two or three of the 2nd
Motor Rifle Division’s constituent regiments, however, is
unlikely to significantly delay or reverse the culmination of the Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast,
especially considering that at least five Russian regiments have definitely been fully committed in this
area, likely along with several others, but Russian forces have still been unable to make substantial
gains.
The overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut additionally appears to be nearing
culmination. Ukrainian military sources have noted a markedly decreased number of attacks in and
around Bakhmut, particularly over the last few days.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has
recently emphasized the toll that a reported lack of ammunition is having on Wagner’s ability to pursue
offensives on Bakhmut and stated on March 15 that due to ammunition shortages and heavy fighting,
Wagner has had to expand its encirclement of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin notably claimed that Wagner
captured Zalizianske, a tiny rural settlement 9km northwest of Bakhmut on the east side of the E40
Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway, which indicates that Wagner forces are likely conducting opportunistic
localized attacks on settlements further north of Bakhmut that are small and relatively easier to seize.
