Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2023
Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W.
Kagan
March 5, 8:25pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, March 5. This report analyzes
the ongoing Battle for Bakhmut and Russian prospects for further offensive efforts.
Ukrainian forces may be conducting a limited fighting withdrawal in eastern Bakhmut
and are continuing to inflict high casualties against the advancing mixed Russian forces.
Russian milbloggers have also lowered their expectations of Russian forces’ ability to
launch additional offensives, which would likely culminate whether or not Russian
forces actually capture Bakhmut. If Russian forces manage to secure Bakhmut they could
then attempt renewed pushes towards one or both of Kostyantynivka or Slovyansk but
would struggle with endemic personnel and equipment constraints. The likely imminent
culmination of the Russian offensive around Bakhmut before or after its fall, the already
culminated Russian offensive around Vuhledar, and the stalling Russian offensive in
Luhansk Oblast are likely setting robust conditions for a future Ukrainian
counteroffensive.
Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut,
although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete
withdrawal from the city. Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from their positions on the eastern
bank of the Bakhmutka River given recent geolocated footage of the destruction of the railway bridge
over the river in northeastern Bakhmut on March 3.
Russian war correspondents and milbloggers
claimed that Russian forces captured eastern, northern, and southern parts of Bakhmut on March 5
and claimed to be reporting from positions in eastern Bakhmut, but ISW cannot independently verify
these claims at this time.
It is unclear if Ukrainian forces are planning to hold
positions on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River.
The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to
consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer
excessive casualties. Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may
pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare.
Russian forces are unlikely to quickly secure significant territorial gains when conducting urban
warfare, which usually favors the defender and can allow Ukrainian forces to inflict high casualties on
