Institute for the Study of War and
the Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and
Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan
February 3, 7pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to
Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS.
The
package includes Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDM) that will increase the range
of HIMARS to 151km from roughly 80km.
The package also includes Javelin anti-armor systems,
two HAWK air defense firing units, regular HIMARS ammunition, and 120mm mortar and
155mm artillery rounds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against certain
opposition voices in the domestic information space while continuing to platform
critical nationalist milbloggers. Moscow authorities announced the arrest of Alexander
Gusov, the alleged administrator of the Novyi Vek and VChK-OGPU Telegram channels, on
charges of extortion on February 3.
Independent Russian outlet OVD Info claimed that Russian
authorities also arrested Oleg Seliverov for charges relating to terrorism after Moscow authorities
recently investigated Seliverov for ties to the Nexta Live opposition outlet.
Seliverov is an anti-
war activist, and VChK-OGPU characterizes itself as exposing the “secrets of officials, oligarchs,
gangsters, security officials.”
Gusov denied his affiliations with Novyi Vek and VChK-OGPU on
January 26, and Seliverov denied associations with Nexta Live on January 28.
VChK-OGPU
condemned the arrests and claimed that Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov and Chemezov’s associates
influenced the crackdowns.
Putin censored several large opposition outlets in late January 2023,
as ISW has previously reported.
Putin likely aims to crack down against opposition outlets that
directly oppose Putin’s regime or goals, including anti-war voices, while upholding voices such as
nationalist milbloggers who support Putin’s regime and war even as the milbloggers criticize the
regime for its poor execution of war aims they regard as insufficient.
Russian officials continue to perpetuate the information operation that the war in
Ukraine is a direct threat to Russian security through legislative manipulations.
Bryansk and Kursk oblasts announced on February 3 that they are extending the “yellow” level of
terrorist threat indefinitely due to a need for enhanced measures to protect and defend Russian
territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on January 31 that simplifies the
process of implementing terror threat alerts in Russia and allows Russian regions classed as
”yellow level” of terrorist threat per Putin’s October 19 martial law decree to indefinitely introduce
an elevated ”terrorist level.”
Bryansk and Kursk oblast officials will likely use this new ”terror
level” regime to escalate law enforcement measures in order to crack down on domestic dissent,
partially to present the war in Ukraine as directly threatening Russian domestic security in order
to generate continued support for Russian operations.
Key Takeaways
• The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package
to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for
HIMARS.
