Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
January 24, 9:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle
tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 that US President Joe Biden is preparing to
send "a significant number" of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and that the White House may announce
the delivery as soon as January 25.
German newspaper Der Spiegel reported on January 24 that
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided to deliver at least one tank company (14 tanks) of Leopard 2
main battle tanks to Ukraine in an unspecified time frame.
Poland likely will send Ukraine Leopard 2
tanks following Germany’s decision. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak stated on January 24
that Poland formally requested Germany grant permission to transfer Poland’s Leopard 2 tanks to
Ukraine, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Berlin would not interfere if
Poland wanted to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
British officials confirmed on January 16 that
the United Kingdom would send Ukraine 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.
French President
Emmanuel Macron stated he would not rule out the possibility of France sending Ukraine Leclerc tanks
on January 22.
Western states’ provision of main battle tanks to Ukraine will help enable Ukraine to conduct
mechanized warfare to defeat the Russian military and liberate Ukrainian territory. ISW previously
assessed that the West has contributed to Ukraine’s inability to take advantage of having pinned
Russian forces in Bakhmut by slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems and supplies essential for
large-scale counteroffensive operations.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny previously
emphasized in December 2022 that Ukraine needs 300 main battle tanks (among other weapon
systems) to enable Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov continued efforts to portray himself
and the traditional Russian military command structure as the true defenders of Russia.
Gerasimov reiterated on January 23 that Russian President Vladimir Putin approved Russian Defense
Minister Sergey Shoigu’s plan to develop Russian forces’ ability to respond to "new threats to the
military security" of Russia, and Gerasimov accused Ukraine and NATO states of aiming to threaten
Russia.
Gerasimov invoked the Russian General Staff’s historical role in guiding and protecting Russia
through several military crises, including the Great Patriotic War (World War II). Gerasimov claimed
that "modern Russia has never known such a level and intensity of hostilities" and heavily implied that
the current war in Ukraine presents the greatest threat to Russia since the Great Patriotic War, therefore
necessitating the leadership and protection of the Russian General Staff under Gerasimov’s leadership.
Gerasimov’s framing of the war and the General Staff’s ongoing revitalization efforts within the
historical context of the Great Patriotic War is part of the continued campaign to counter the growing
power and influence of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chechen Republic Head Ramzan
Kadyrov, and their respective paramilitary structures, all of which threaten Gerasimov and the Russian
General Staff as ISW has previously reported.
It also continues Putin’s efforts to reframe the current
struggle as an effort like the Great Patriotic War to justify protracted demands for sacrifice and
mobilization by the Russian people.
