Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Angela Howard, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Mason
Clark
January 16, 7:15 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map
is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny
Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely responsible for capturing
Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on January 12. Russian President Vladimir Putin attributed the
success on the frontlines to Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and General Staff plans when
responding to a journalist’s question on January 15 regarding Russian advances in Soledar.
Putin’s statement was aired live on state-controlled TV and was likely a deliberate effort to
undermine Prigozhin’s influence within the Russian information space, given that Putin has
previously refrained from commenting on tactical advances in Ukraine. Putin may have also
sought to demonstrate he retains control over traditional Russian mass media, while Prigozhin
continues to grow an audience on Telegram and other social media networks. The Russian MoD,
in turn, also continued to report that Russian Southern Military District (SMD) assault
detachments and Russian airborne troops are attacking Ukrainian positions around Bakhmut and
likely deliberately excluded mentioning Wagner forces in its January 15 daily briefing.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov possibly indirectly accused Prigozhin of
deliberately exposing the conflict between the Russian MoD and Wagner in the
Russian information space. Peskov attempted to dispel reports of an ongoing conflict
between Prigozhin and the Russian MoD, stating on January 16 that these reports are “products
of information manipulations.”
Peskov, however, added that while most of such manipulations
come from Russia’s ”enemies,” the Kremlin has ”friends” who also behave in a similar way.
Peskov’s statement may have been tacitly aimed at Prigozhin, whose criticism of the Russian MoD
is growing increasingly brazen. Peskov also continued Putin’s efforts to undermine Wagner’s
effort to advance a narrative that only Wagner forces were responsible for capturing Soledar,
noting that Russians will remember both Russian servicemembers and Wagner forces for their
achievements.
Prigozhin is continuing his efforts to undermine faith in the Russian MoD and in
Putin-aligned actors. Prigozhin directly responded to Peskov’s statement in an interview
question about the MoD-Prigozhin conflict, stating that he has no reason to not trust Peskov.
Prigozhin could have easily disproved reports of the conflict by simply denying them, but
continued his tactic of using deliberately vague messaging in order to generate more discussion
within the Russian information space, ultimately aimed at undermining confidence in the MoD
and Putin. Prigozhin also presented medals to Wagner forces for the capture of Soledar on
January 15, including symbolically awarding a fighter who previously received a medal of courage
from Putin.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Russo-Ukrainian War is
in a “decisive phase” on January 15.
Stoltenburg told German news outlet Handelsblatt on
January 15 that NATO countries recognize the current situation and must “provide Ukraine with
the weapons it needs to win.”
Stoltenberg’s statement supports ISW’s January 15 assessment that
the Kremlin likely intends to take decisive strategic action in 2023.
Stoltenberg’s statement does
not entail that the war is in its final phase or that Russian forces are planning to employ all
