Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10,
2023
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Katherine Lawlor, and Mason Clark
January 10, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian media reported on January 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former
commander of the Central Military District (CMD) and Russian forces in eastern Kharkiv
and northern Donetsk oblasts, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground
Forces. Russian outlet URA, citing unidentified Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) sources, reported
that Lapin took over from Colonel General Vasily Tonkoshkurov as Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground
Forces on January 9.
It is unclear why Tonkoshkurov was removed from this position and what his
next role will be. While official Kremlin and MoD sources have not confirmed the claim, it was widely
circulated and responded to as fact among military commentators in the Russian information space.
Lapin’s appointment is notably to the position of Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces (also
known as the Russian Army), not the Russian Armed Forces as a whole. Army General Valery
Gerasimov likely remains Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. The Chief of Staff of
the Russian Army is not a frontline command position, and while Lapin’s specific duties (in the
currently fragmented Russian command structure) are unclear, he is unlikely to directly command
troops in Ukraine.
Lapin’s previous role as commander of the "Central" group of Russian forces in Ukraine
and commander of the Russian Central Military District (CMD) was checkered with
controversy following the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive that retook large
swaths of territory in eastern Kharkiv and northern Donetsk oblasts in September 2022.
The Russian MoD confirmed Lapin’s appointment as commander of the "Central" grouping on June
24, 2022, and noted he was responsible for operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area and likely
the broader Luhansk-Donetsk Oblast border area.
Lapin went on to receive a "Hero of Russia" medal
on July 4 for his role in the Russian capture of Lysychansk.
Lapin was also the commander responsible
for Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, and received strong criticism from prominent voices in the Russian
information space for his claimed responsibility for massive Russian losses following successful
Ukrainian counteroffensives in mid-September of 2022 that pushed Russian forces to the Kharkiv-
Luhansk Oblast border.
Following the disastrous Russian loss of most of Kharkiv Oblast and the critical
settlement of Lyman, the Kremlin reportedly removed Lapin from both command of the "Central"
grouping and CMD.
The pro-war information space’s response to Lapin’s perceived command failures
served as a catalyst for a fracture between a faction led by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner
Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin—the siloviki—and the Russian MoD establishment that milbloggers
widely claimed Lapin represented.
Kadyrov’s staunch and pointed criticism of Lapin at the time
demonstrated that the siloviki faction saw itself as fundamentally at odds with the conventional Russian
MoD and associated elements.
Lapin’s appointment as army Chief of Staff may be intended to serve as a counterbalance
to the growing prominence of the siloviki. Prigozhin and Kadyrov both have largely private
armed forces at their disposal (Kadyrov’s Chechen fighters and Prigozhin’s Wagner Group) and are
