1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
January 5, 8pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire
between January 6 and January 7 in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas is likely an information
operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation. Putin instructed Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to
initiate a ceasefire from 1200 January 6 to 2400 January 7 along the “entire line of contact between parties in Ukraine” and
called on Ukraine to accept the ceasefire to allow “a large number of citizens of citizens professing Orthodoxy” to attend
services on the day of Russian Orthodox Christmas.[1] Putin’s announcement was ostensibly in response to an appeal by
Patriarch Kirill of Moscow (head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church) for a temporary ceasefire in
observance of Christmas Eve and the Day of the Nativity of Christ.[2] Ukrainian and Western officials, including US
President Joe Biden, immediately highlighted the hypocrisy of the ceasefire announcement and emphasized that Russian
forces continued striking Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure on December 25—when many Orthodox Ukrainians
celebrate Christmas—and New Year’s.[3]
Putin could have been seeking to secure a 36-hour pause for Russian troops to afford them the ability to rest, recoup, and
reorient to relaunch offensive operations in critical sectors of the front. Such a pause would disproportionately
benefit Russian troops and begin to deprive Ukraine of the initiative. Putin cannot reasonably expect Ukraine to
meet the terms of this suddenly declared ceasefire and may have called for the ceasefire to frame Ukraine as
unaccommodating and unwilling to take the necessary steps towards negotiations. This is an intentional information tactic
that Russia has previously employed, as ISW has reported.[4] Ceasefires also take time to organize and implement. Kremlin
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably said on December 14 that Russia has no plans for a ceasefire for Russian Orthodox
Christmas, so Putin’s sudden January 5 announcement was surprising.[5] The date of Russian Orthodox Christmas in 2023,
after all, has been known for centuries. Had Putin been serious about a religiously motivated ceasefire he had ample time to
prepare for it. The announcement of a ceasefire within 24 hours of when it is meant to enter into force suggests that it was
announced with the intention of framing Ukrainian forces who continue to fight throughout the timeframe of the ceasefire
as unwilling to work towards peace and wanting to fight at all costs.
Putin’s framing of the ceasefire on religious grounds additionally reinforces another two-fold Russian
information operation that frames Ukraine as suppressing religious groups and positions Putin as the true
protector of the Christian faith. As ISW has previously observed, the Kremlin has weaponized discussions of Eastern
Orthodox Christianity to accuse Kyiv of oppressing religious liberties in Ukraine.[6] Russian sources have recently picked
up on raids carried out by the Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) against Russian Orthodox churches and clergy
members and Ukrainian sanctions against Kremlin-linked elements of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow
Patriarchate (UOC MP).[7] These measures are not efforts to suppress religious liberties in Ukraine but rather are aimed at
explicitly pro-Kremlin elements of the Russian Orthodox Church that have materially, politically, and spiritually supported
Russian aggression against Ukraine.[8] The invocation of a ceasefire on distinctly religious grounds in line with Russian
Orthodox Christian tradition is a subcomponent of this information operation. Suddenly announcing a ceasefire with
Ukraine that should have been negotiated well in advance in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas will allow Russia
to frame Ukraine as infringing on the right of believers to celebrate the holiday as hostilities will likely continue into January
6 and 7. This information operation can support the baseless Kremlin narrative that Ukraine was persecuting Orthodox
Christians and Russian speakers, a narrative that Putin has repeatedly advanced as justification for his illegal invasion of
Ukraine in February 2022.
The ceasefire announcement positions Putin as the guarantor of Christian values and beliefs. Putin and other Russian
officials have frequently framed the war in Ukraine as a religious war against “Satanic” and “fanatical” elements of Ukrainian
society that seek to undermine traditional religious values and morality.[9] Putin’s proposed ceasefire supports false
Russian information operations that Russia is fighting a holy war against an immoral Ukrainian society and its secular
Western overseers. In actuality, Russian forces have suppressed religious freedom in occupied Ukrainian territory since
2014.[10]
The pro-war Russian milblogger information space responded to the ceasefire announcement with
vitriolic discontent. Several prominent milbloggers emphasized that Russian soldiers do not want a ceasefire at all and
remarked that it is a useless, defeatist ploy that is unlikely to succeed in the first place.[11] One milblogger who was
previously embedded with Russian units in Bakhmut and attended the annexation ceremony at the Kremlin in September
employed overtly genocidal, dehumanizing rhetoric in response to the ceasefire and stated that Russian soldiers do not want
