1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023
Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, and Mason Clark
June 15, 2023, 6:45pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily
alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic
frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 2:30pm ET on June 15. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the
June 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and reportedly made
gains on June 15. Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces conducted
successful offensive operations north and northwest of Bakhmut.[1] Ukraine’s Tavrisk Group of Forces Press Center
reported that Ukrainian forces advanced up to one kilometer in western Donetsk Oblast and are continuing attempts to
improve their tactical positions near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City).[2] Russian milbloggers claimed that
Ukrainian troops unsuccessfully attacked southwest and south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast and claimed that
Ukrainian forces are increasing the tempo of counteroffensive operations in the area due to improved weather
conditions.[3] Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksii
Hromov reported that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 3km near Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast and
up to 7km near Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast and have liberated seven settlements in those areas since
beginning counteroffensive operations.[4] Advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak however stated
on June 15 that Ukrainian forces have yet to launch counteroffensives “as such” but acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are
conducting offensive actions, a likely clarification that Ukrainian forces have not yet begun their main effort.[5] ISW
assesses that ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations are likely setting conditions for wider Ukrainian counteroffensive
objectives that are not immediately clear and therefore represent the initial phase of an ongoing counteroffensive.
Russian milbloggers continue to credit alleged superior Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities and
defensive doctrine for Russian forces’ successful defenses against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations
in southern Ukraine. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are implementing a “strategic
defense” that seeks to attrit advancing Ukrainian forces in extended positional battles along a first line of defense before
later launching counterattacks against weakened Ukrainian assault units.[6] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces
are maintaining doctrinally sound defensive operations in this sector in which a first echelon of forces repels or slows
attacking forces before a second echelon of forces counterattacks against any enemy breakthrough.[7] Another prominent
Russian milblogger claimed that Russian EW complexes prevent Ukrainian forces from using precision-guided munitions
guided by GPS coordinates and heavily disrupt Ukrainian radio communication.[8] The milblogger specifically claimed that
Russian forces use “Murmansk-BN” EW complexes to disrupt sensors on Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance equipment and
“Krasukha-4” EW complexes to suppress connections with satellite signals within a radius of 300km.[9] ISW has previously
assessed that Russian EW capabilities have been critical in complicating Ukrainian attacks in the Zaporizhia direction,
although it is unclear if continued successful Russian EW tactics are a result of superior capacities or improved Russian
employment of these systems. ISW has previously noted that initial Ukrainian assaults and Russian defensive operations
should not be extrapolated to predict the outcome of all Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[10]
Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine early in the morning
of June 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that between 00:20 and 04:30 local time on June 15, Russian forces
launched four Kh-101/555 cruise missiles from four Tu-95 strategic bombers from over the Caspian Sea and 20 Shahed-
typed drones from the northern and southern directions.[11]Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian air defenses
shot down one of the cruise missiles and all 20 Shaheds.[12] The remaining three cruise missiles struck industrial facilities
in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[13] Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the UA Gen Staff Brigadier General
Oleksii Hromov notably stated on June 15 that Russian forces have deployed a “Bal” Kh-35 coastal defense system to Bryansk
Oblast, which Hromov warned may allow Russian forces to conduct strikes on Ukrainian far-rear areas in Zhytomyr, Kyiv,
Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts.[14] Russian forces have long repurposed various missile systems,
such as S-300 surface-to-air-missile systems, to strike ground targets and compensate for shortages of precision munitions,
which is likely why Russian forces have deployed a coastal defense system to a land-locked oblast.
The Russian military is advancing initial efforts to stand up new corps- and army-level formations to
implement Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announced intent to conduct large-scale force restructuring
