1 Instute for the Study of War and AEI’s Crical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023
Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Mason Clark
June 11, 2023, 6:40pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that
ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse
map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:30pm ET on June 11. ISW will cover
subsequent reports in the June 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the
front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister
Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut
area, and Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian ground attacks on Bakhmut’s northern and
southern flanks.[1] Geolocated footage and Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces liberated
multiple settlements during continued ground attacks south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka
Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast.[2] Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued to
attack southwest of Orikhiv in Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces made gains in this area.[3]
Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and
western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces advanced 300 to
1,500 meters in southern Ukraine.[4] Malyar and other Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that
Ukrainian forces made gains south of Velyka Novosilka between June 10 and 11, including liberating
Makarivka, Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Storozheve, and Novodarivka.[5] Some Russian sources reported
that battles are ongoing in “grey zone” or contested areas or that Ukrainian forces are operating in
areas that Russian forces did not fully occupy before Ukrainian attacks in southern Ukrain e.[6]
Russian sources are likely referring to Ukrainian territorial advances through Russian defenses as
capturing ”grey zones” in order to downplay Ukrainian gains and omit reporting on Ukrainian forces
breaking through defensive lines. Ukrainian forces liberated several towns, but claims of a Ukrainian
“breakthrough” are premature at this time.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces are
transferring their most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction to the
Bakhmut and Zaporizhia directions. Malyar stated on June 11 that Russian forces are
transferring elements of the 49th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) and unspecified
naval infantry and airborne forces elements from the Kherson direction in connection with the
destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam.[7] Malyar noted that Russian
forces likely blew the KHPP dam in order to shorten their defensive lines in Kherson Oblast as part of
the response to the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Flooding downriver of the KHPP has
drained the Kakhovka Reservoir, resulting in landmasses emerging from the water. It is unclear how
these terrain changes will affect maneuver warfare in southern Ukraine at this time.[8] If the terrain
changes from flooding in the Dnipro River do not foreclose any possible Ukrainian river crossings in
